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We consider parameter estimation in finite hidden state space Markov models with time-dependent inhomogeneous noise, where the inhomogeneity vanishes sufficiently fast. Based on the concept of asymptotic mean stationary processes we prove…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Manuel Diehn , Axel Munk , Daniel Rudolf

We prove the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in time-varying transition probability (TVTP) regime-switching models. This class of models extends the constant regime transition probability in Markov-switching…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-12-06 Chaojun Li , Yan Liu

In the last decade, there has been a growing interest to use Wishart processes for modelling, especially for financial applications. However, there are still few studies on the estimation of its parameters. Here, we study the Maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-18 Aurélien Alfonsi , Ahmed Kebaier , Clément Rey

We consider a one dimensional ballistic random walk evolving in an i.i.d. parametric random environment. We provide a maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the environment parameters based on a single observation of the path till the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-02-13 Francis Comets , Mikael Falconnet , Oleg Loukianov , Dasha Loukianova , Catherine Matias

We study maximal clades in random phylogenetic trees with the Yule-Harding model or, equivalently, in binary search trees. We use probabilistic methods to reprove and extend earlier results on moment asymptotics and asymptotic normality. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-28 Svante Janson

This study focuses on the estimation of the Emax dose-response model, a widely utilized framework in clinical trials, agriculture, and environmental experiments. Existing challenges in obtaining maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-11 Giacomo Aletti , Nancy Flournoy , Caterina May , Chiara Tommasi

Mixture distributions with dynamic weights are an efficient way of modeling loss data characterized by heavy tails. However, maximum likelihood estimation of this family of models is difficult, mostly because of the need to evaluate…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-11 Marco Bee

The maximum likelihood threshold (MLT) of a graph $G$ is the minimum number of samples to almost surely guarantee existence of the maximum likelihood estimate in the corresponding Gaussian graphical model. We give a new characterization of…

Inference for locally stationary processes is often based on some local Whittle-type approximation of the likelihood function defined in the frequency domain. The main reasons for using such a likelihood approximation is that i) it has…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-22 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Robert Kohn

We present new results for consistency of maximum likelihood estimators with a focus on multivariate mixed models. Our theory builds on the idea of using subsets of the full data to establish consistency of estimators based on the full…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-13 Karl Oskar Ekvall , Galin L. Jones

We consider a one-dimensional recurrent random walk in random environment (RWRE) when the environment is i.i.d. with a parametric, finitely supported distribution. Based on a single observation of the path, we provide a maximum likelihood…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Francis Comets , Mikael Falconnet , Oleg Loukianov , Dasha Loukianova

We consider critical multitype Bienaym\'e trees that are either irreducible or possess a critical irreducible component with attached subcritical components. These trees are studied under two distinct conditioning frameworks: first,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-01 Louigi Addario-Berry , Philipp Beltran , Benedikt Stufler , Paul Thévenin

A fundamental question in the field of molecular computation is what computational tasks a biochemical system can carry out. In this work, we focus on the problem of finding the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for log-affine models. We…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-06 Oskar Henriksson , Carlos Améndola , Jose Israel Rodriguez , Polly Y. Yu

Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) are hugely popular for solving tabular data problems. However, practitioners are not only interested in point predictions, but also in probabilistic predictions in order to quantify the uncertainty of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Olivier Sprangers , Sebastian Schelter , Maarten de Rijke

For the univariate current status and, more generally, the interval censoring model, distribution theory has been developed for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and smoothed maximum likelihood estimator (SMLE) of the unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-06-18 Piet Groeneboom

This work proposes ensemble Kalman randomized maximum likelihood estimation, a new derivative-free method for performing randomized maximum likelihood estimation, which is a method that can be used to generate approximate samples from…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Pavlos Stavrinides , Elizabeth Qian

Maximum regularized likelihood estimators (MRLEs) are arguably the most established class of estimators in high-dimensional statistics. In this paper, we derive guarantees for MRLEs in Kullback-Leibler divergence, a general measure of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-18 Rui Zhuang , Johannes Lederer

Membrane proteins move in heterogeneous environments with spatially (sometimes temporally) varying friction and with biochemical interactions with various partners. It is important to reliably distinguish different modes of motion to…

Biological Physics · Physics 2015-03-16 Silvan Türkcan , Jean-Baptiste Masson

We find limiting distributions of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a log-concave density, that is, a density of the form $f_0=\exp\varphi_0$ where $\varphi_0$ is a concave function on $\mathbb{R}$. The pointwise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-17 Fadoua Balabdaoui , Kaspar Rufibach , Jon A. Wellner

Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Duncan Ermini Leaf
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