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In this paper we propose a new model for volatility fluctuations in financial time series. This model relies on a non-stationary gaussian process that exhibits aging behavior. It turns out that its properties, over any finite time interval,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-12 J. F. Muzy , R. Baile , E. Bacry

Turbulence theory is usually concerned with the statistical moments of the velocity or its fluctuations. One could also analyze the implicit probability distributions. This is the purview of information theory. Here we use information…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-02-15 Rory T. Cerbus , Walter I. Goldburg

In this paper we present an analysis of information transfer time based on holomorphism, causality and the classical principle of stationary phase. We also make a preliminary study of the effect of noise on information transfer time, and…

Optics · Physics 2007-05-23 Michael C. Parker , Stuart D. Walker

The Tsallis entropy and Fisher information entropy (matrix) are very important quantities expressing information measures in nonextensive systems. Stationary and dynamical properties of the information entropies have been investigated in…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 Hideo Hasegawa

The problems of causality, modeling, and control for chaotic, high-dimensional dynamical systems are formulated in the language of information theory. The central quantity of interest is the Shannon entropy, which measures the amount of…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-06-01 Adrián Lozano-Durán , Gonzalo Arranz

The selection of an equilibrium state by maximising the entropy of a system, subject to certain constraints, is often powerfully motivated as an exercise in logical inference, a procedure where conclusions are reached on the basis of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-12-03 Ian J. Ford

Time scales of turbulent strain activity, denoted as the strain persistence times of first and second order, are obtained from time-dependent expectation values and correlation functions of lagrangian rate-of-strain eigenvalues taken in…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2014-01-06 L. Moriconi , R. M. Pereira

A statistic based on increment ratios (IR) and related to zero crossings of increment sequence is defined and studied for measuring the roughness of random paths. The main advantages of this statistic are robustness to smooth additive and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-07-26 Jean-Marc Bardet , Donatas Surgailis

Inertial particles in turbulence form clusters, which strongly affect particle collisions and transport properties. Clustering models based on statistically stationary turbulence implicitly assume the instantaneous-equilibrium approximation…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-05-26 Taketo Tominaga , Ryo Onishi

It is commonplace to encounter nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process may change over time or across domains. The nonstationarity presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-21 Kun Zhang , Biwei Huang , Jiji Zhang , Bernhard Schölkopf , Clark Glymour

We propose an information-theoretic alternative to the popular Cronbach alpha coefficient of reliability. Particularly suitable for contexts in which instruments are scored on a strictly nonnumeric scale, our proposed index is based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-19 Ernest Fokoue , Necla Gunduz

Understanding the temporal dependence of precipitation is key to improving weather predictability and developing efficient stochastic rainfall models. We introduce an information-theoretic approach to quantify memory effects in discrete…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-03-16 Juan De Gregorio , David Sánchez , Raúl Toral

Many spatial processes exhibit nonstationary features. We estimate a variance function from a single process observation where the errors are nonstationary and correlated. We propose a difference-based approach for a one-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-05-24 Eunice J. Kim , Zhengyuan Zhu

We obtain a general solution for the probability density function of wave intensities in non-stationary Wave Turbulence. The solution is expressed in terms of the wave action spectrum evolving according the the wave-kinetic equation. We…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-09-13 Yeontaek Choi , Young-Sam Kwon , Sanggyu Jo , Sergey Nazarenko

Estimating the parameters governing the dynamics of a system is a prerequisite for its optimal control. We present a simple but powerful method that we call STEADY, for STochastic Estimation algorithm for DYnamical variables, to estimate…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-05-29 Stefan Krastanov , Sisi Zhou , Steven T. Flammia , Liang Jiang

By detailed Molecular Dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations %of a realistic model we show that granular materials at rest can be described as thermodynamics systems. First we show that granular packs can be characterized by few parameters,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Massimo Pica Ciamarra , Antonio Coniglio , Mario Nicodemi

We theoretically investigate parameter quantum estimation in quantum chaotic systems. Our analysis is based on an effective description of non-integrable quantum systems in terms of a random matrix Hamiltonian. Based on this approach we…

We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-30 Matteo Barigozzi , Giuseppe Cavaliere , Lorenzo Trapani

Stationary distributions of multivariate diffusion processes have recently been proposed as probabilistic models of causal systems in statistics and machine learning. Motivated by these developments, we study stationary multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-02 Tobias Boege , Mathias Drton , Benjamin Hollering , Sarah Lumpp , Pratik Misra , Daniela Schkoda

We present a theory for wave scintillation in the situation with a time-dependent partially coherent source and a time-dependent randomly heterogeneous medium. Our objective is to understand how the scintillation index of the measured…

Optics · Physics 2022-07-20 Josselin Garnier , Knut Solna