Related papers: Martingale product estimators for sensitivity anal…
We find the variance-optimal equivalent martingale measure when multivariate assets are modeled by a regime-switching geometric Brownian motion, and the regimes are represented by a homogeneous continuous time Markov chain. Under this new…
In this work we consider the unbiased estimation of expectations w.r.t.~probability measures that have non-negative Lebesgue density, and which are known point-wise up-to a normalizing constant. We focus upon developing an unbiased method…
We develop an estimator for the high-dimensional covariance matrix of a locally stationary process with a smoothly varying trend and use this statistic to derive consistent predictors in non-stationary time series. In contrast to the…
Machine learning systems deployed in safety-critical robotics settings must be robust to distribution shifts. However, system designers must understand the cause of a distribution shift in order to implement the appropriate intervention or…
Gradient-based Monte Carlo sampling algorithms, like Langevin dynamics and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, are important methods for Bayesian inference. In large-scale settings, full-gradients are not affordable and thus stochastic gradients…
This paper derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a…
We consider the problem of estimating parameter sensitivity for Markovian models of reaction networks. Sensitivity values measure the responsiveness of an output to the model parameters. They help in analyzing the network, understanding its…
Unlike macroscopic engines, the molecular machinery of living cells is strongly affected by fluctuations. Stochastic Thermodynamics uses Markovian jump processes to model the random transitions between the chemical and configurational…
We develop a stochastic model for Lagrangian velocity as it is observed in experimental and numerical fully developed turbulent flows. We define it as the unique statistically stationary solution of a causal dynamics, given by a stochastic…
Lag windows are commonly used in time series, econometrics, steady-state simulation, and Markov chain Monte Carlo to estimate time-average covariance matrices. In the presence of positive correlation of the underlying process, estimators of…
Ionides, King et al. (see e.g. Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems, PNAS 103) have recently introduced an original approach to perform maximum likelihood parameter estimation in state-space models which only requires being able to…
Constrained sampling is an important and challenging task in computational statistics, concerned with generating samples from a distribution under certain constraints. There are numerous types of algorithm aimed at this task, ranging from…
Calibration of large-scale differential equation models to observational or experimental data is a widespread challenge throughout applied sciences and engineering. A crucial bottleneck in state-of-the art calibration methods is the…
We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results…
The slow processes of metastable stochastic dynamical systems are difficult to access by direct numerical simulation due the sampling problem. Here, we suggest an approach for modeling the slow parts of Markov processes by approximating the…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
We provide a new estimation method for conditional moment models via the martingale difference divergence (MDD).Our MDD-based estimation method is formed in the framework of a continuum of unconditional moment restrictions. Unlike the…
Many living and complex systems exhibit second order emergent dynamics. Limited experimental access to the configurational degrees of freedom results in data that appears to be generated by a non-Markovian process. This poses a challenge in…
The classical state-space approach to optimal estimation of stochastic processes is efficient when the driving noises are generated by martingales. In particular, the weight function of the optimal linear filter, which solves a complicated…
We show that, under certain smoothness conditions, a Brownian martingale, when evaluated at a fixed time, can be represented via an exponential formula at a later time. The time-dependent generator of this exponential operator only depends…