Related papers: Detecting frequency modulation in stochastic time …
For dynamical systems that can be modelled as asymptotically stable linear systems forced by Gaussian noise, this paper develops methods to infer or estimate their modes from observations in real time. The modes can be real or complex. For…
Stochastic processes that are randomly reset to an initial condition serve as a showcase to investigate non-equilibrium steady states. However, all existing results have been restricted to the special case of memoryless resetting protocols.…
How can we monitor, in real time, whether one uncertain prospect has any upside over another? To answer this question, we develop a novel family of sequential, anytime-valid tests for stochastic dominance (SD; also known as stochastic…
In this paper, we establish a connection between the recently developed data-driven time-frequency analysis \cite{HS11,HS13-1} and the classical second order differential equations. The main idea of the data-driven time-frequency analysis…
We consider a nonparametric heteroscedastic time series regression model and suggest testing procedures to detect changes in the conditional variance function. The tests are based on a sequential marked empirical process and thus combine…
Extracting relevant properties of empirical signals generated by nonlinear, stochastic, and high-dimensional systems is a challenge of complex systems research. Open questions are how to differentiate chaotic signals from stochastic ones,…
We propose a novel Bayesian methodology for analyzing nonstationary time series that exhibit oscillatory behaviour. We approximate the time series using a piecewise oscillatory model with unknown periodicities, where our goal is to estimate…
Algorithms are developed for the quickest detection of a change in statistically periodic processes. These are processes in which the statistical properties are nonstationary but repeat after a fixed time interval. It is assumed that the…
We characterize the identified sets of a wide range of stochastic choice models, including random utility, various models of boundedly-rational behavior, and dynamic discrete choice. In each of these settings, we show two distributions over…
The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…
A common assumption in the spatial analysis of agricultural field trials is stationarity. In practice, however, this assumption is often violated due to unaccounted field effects. For instance, in plant breeding field trials, this can lead…
The non-stationary evolution of observable quantities in complex systems can frequently be described as a juxtaposition of quasi-stationary spells. Given that standard theoretical and data analysis approaches usually rely on the assumption…
In a physical system, changing parameters such as temperature can induce a phase transition: an abrupt change from one state of matter to another. Analogous phenomena have recently been observed in large language models. Typically, the task…
Many real-life signals, such as gravitational wave measurements, biomedical signals, or geophysical data, are strongly non-stationary but can be decomposed into mono-component signals that contain only one active frequency over time. This…
Steady-state solutions for a variety of relevant queueing systems are known today, e.g., from queueing theory, effective bandwidths, and network calculus. The behavior during transient phases, on the other hand, is understood to a much…
The problem of joint estimation of power spectrum and modulation from realizations of frequency modulated stationary wideband signals is considered. The study is motivated by some specific signal classes from which departures to…
Oscillatory processes are central for the understanding of the neural bases of cognition and behaviour. To analyse these processes, time-frequency (TF) decomposition methods are applied and non-parametric cluster-based statistical procedure…
Time-dependently driven stochastic systems form a vast and manifold class of non-equilibrium systems used to model important applications on small length scales such as bit erasure protocols or microscopic heat engines. One property that…
Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are widely used as generic feature extractors, yet the notion of non-stationarity in their embedding spaces remains poorly understood. Recent work often conflates non-stationarity with distribution…
The paper algorithmizes the problem of regime change point identification for data measured in a system exhibiting impulsive behaviors. This is a fundamental challenge for annotation of measurement data relevant, e.g., for designing…