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The literature considers multi-type Markov branching processes (BPs), where the offspring distribution depends only on the living (current) population. We analyse the total-current population-dependent BPs where the offspring distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-14 Khushboo Agarwal

The marked increase in advertisements over online social networks (OSNs) necessitates the study of content propagation. We analyse the viral markets with content providers competing for the propagation of similar posts over OSNs. Towards…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-12-08 Khushboo Agarwal , Veeraruna Kavitha

A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Miguel González , Carmen Minuesa , Manuel Mota , Inés del Puerto , Alfonso Ramos

Population-size dependent branching processes (PSDBP) and controlled branching processes (CBP) are two classes of branching processes widely used to model biological populations that exhibit logistic growth. In this paper we develop…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-03 Peter Braunsteins , Sophie Hautphenne , James Kerlidis

We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-16 Anastasis Georgoulas , Jane Hillston , Guido Sanguinetti

Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…

We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Angus Lewis , Antonio Parrella , John Maclean , Andrew J. Black

By generating the specifics of a network structure only when needed (on-the-fly), we derive a simple stochastic process that exactly models the time evolution of susceptible-infectious dynamics on finite-size networks. The small number of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-18 Pierre-André Noël , Antoine Allard , Laurent Hébert-Dufresne , Vincent Marceau , Louis J. Dubé

Density dependent Markov population processes with countably many types can often be well approximated over finite time intervals by the solution of the differential equations that describe their average drift, provided that the total…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-05 A. D. Barbour , Malwina Luczak

We study time continuous branching processes with exponentially distributed lifetimes, with two types of cells that proliferate according to binary fission. A range of possible system dynamics are considered, each of which is characterized…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-27 Nam H Nguyen , Marek Kimmel

We are interested in modelling Darwinian evolution, resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions. Our models are rooted in the microscopic, stochastic description of a population…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Nicolas Champagnat , Régis Ferrière , Sylvie Méléard

Interesting posts are continually forwarded by the users of the online social network (OSN). Such propagation leads to re-forwarding of the post to some of the previous recipients, which increases as the post reaches a large number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-14 Khushboo Agarwal , Veeraruna Kavitha

We study branching Markov chains on a countable state space (space of types) $\mathscr{X}$, with the focus on the qualitative aspects of the limit behaviour of the evolving empirical population distributions. No conditions are imposed on…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-30 Vadim A. Kaimanovich , Wolfgang Woess

Density dependent Markov population processes in large populations of size $N$ were shown by Kurtz (1970, 1971) to be well approximated over finite time intervals by the solution of the differential equations that describe their average…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-15 A. D. Barbour , Kais Hamza , Haya Kaspi , Fima Klebaner

We study algorithms to analyze a particular class of Markov population processes that is often used in epidemiology. More specifically, Markov binomial chains are the model that arises from stochastic time-discretizations of classical…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Alejandro Alarcón Gonzalez , Niel Hens , Tim Leys , Guillermo A. Pérez

Hybrid systems, and Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes in particular, are widely used to model and numerically study systems exhibiting multiple time scales in biochemical reaction kinetics and related areas. In this paper an almost…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2011-12-07 Martin G. Riedler

Branching process approximation to the initial stages of an epidemic process has been used since the 1950's as a technique for providing stochastic counterparts to deterministic epidemic threshold theorems. One way of describing the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-10-22 A. D. Barbour

Many probabilistic inference problems such as stochastic filtering or the computation of rare event probabilities require model analysis under initial and terminal constraints. We propose a solution to this bridging problem for the widely…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-28 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Gerrit Großmann , Verena Wolf

We consider a stochastic individual-based population model with competition, trait-structure affecting reproduction and survival, and changing environment. The changes of traits are described by jump processes, and the dynamics can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-17 Benoît Henry , Sylvie Méléard , Viet Chi Tran

We are interested in the dynamic of a structured branching population where the trait of each individual moves according to a Markov process. The rate of division of each individual is a function of its trait and when a branching event…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-29 Aline Marguet
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