Related papers: Estimating earthquake-induced tsunami height proba…
Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a…
After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…
Small islands in the vicinity of the mainland are believed to offer protection from wind and waves and thus coastal communities have been developed in these areas. However, what happens when it comes to tsunamis is not clear. Will these…
We study a linear model for the propagation of hydro-acoustic waves and tsunami in a stratified free-surface ocean. A formulation was previously obtained by linearizing the compressible Euler equations. The new formulation is obtained by…
Coulomb-stress theory has been used for years in seismology to understand how earthquakes trigger each other. Whenever an earthquake occurs, the stress field changes, and places with positive increases are brought closer to failure.…
The long-term goal of this work is the development of high-fidelity simulation tools for dispersive tsunami propagation. A dispersive model is especially important for short wavelength phenomena such as an asteroid impact into the ocean,…
Hydraulic fracturing increases reservoir permeability by opening fractures and triggering slip on natural fractures and faults. While seismic slip of small faults or fault patches is detectable as microseismic events, the role of aseismic…
The problem of submarine sediment slide which generates the surface water waves is considered. To simulate numerically the landslide motion it is used the method which permits to take into account detailed rheological properties of slide…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
We introduce a Self-affine Asperity Model (SAM) for the seismicity that mimics the fault friction by means of two fractional Brownian profiles (fBm) that slide one over the other. An earthquake occurs when there is an overlap of the two…
Employing a linear shallow water equation (LSWE) model in the spherical coordinates, this paper investigates the tsunami waves generated by the atmospheric pressure shock waves due to the explosion of the submarine volcano Hunga Tonga-Hunga…
We propose a new version of the ETAS model, which we also analyze theoretically. As for the standard ETAS model, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law as a probability density function for background events' magnitude. Instead, the magnitude…
In recent years, considerable attention has been paid to research and development methods able to assess the seismic energy propagation on the territory. The seismic energy propagation is strongly related to the complexity of the source and…
The emergence of a power-law distribution for the energy released during an earthquake is investigated in several models. Generic features are identified which are based on the self-affine behavior of the stress field prior to an event.…
Considered here are Boussinesq systems of equations of surface water wave theory over a variable bottom. A simplified such Boussinesq system is derived and solved numerically by the standard Galerkin-finite element method. We study by…
The modeling of tsunami generation is an essential phase in understanding tsunamis. For tsunamis generated by underwater earthquakes, it involves the modeling of the sea bottom motion as well as the resulting motion of the water above it. A…
Predicting tsunami impacts at remote coasts largely relies on tsunami en-route measurements in an open ocean. In this work, these measurements are used to generate instant tsunami predictions in deep water and near the coast. The…
Turbulent water motions are important for the exchange of momentum, heat, nutrients, and suspended matter including sediments in the deep-sea that is generally stably stratified in density. To maintain ocean-density stratification, an…