Related papers: Bayesian multistate modelling of incomplete chroni…
In life insurance contracts, benefits and premiums are typically paid contingent on the biometric state of the insured. Due to delays between the occurrence, reporting, and settlement of changes to the biometric state, the state process is…
Forecasts of mortality provide vital information about future populations, with implications for pension and health-care policy as well as for decisions made by private companies about life insurance and annuity pricing. Stochastic…
Evidence-based knowledge of infectious disease burden, including prevalence, incidence, severity and transmission, in different population strata and locations, and possibly in real time, is crucial to the planning and evaluation of public…
We consider a flexible Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to model the age-specific transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on daily mortality counts. The temporal evolution of transmission rates in populations containing multiple types…
In this work we present a method for the statistical analysis of continually monitored data arising in a recurrent diseases problem. The model enables individual level inference in the presence of time transience and population…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…
Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
There have been significant efforts devoted to solving the longevity risk given that a continuous growth in population ageing has become a severe issue for many developed countries over the past few decades. The Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)…
Patient-level health economic data collected alongside clinical trials are an important component of the process of technology appraisal, with a view to informing resource allocation decisions. For end of life treatments, such as cancer…
In this work, we consider the problem of predicting the course of a progressive disease, such as cancer or Alzheimer's. Progressive diseases often start with mild symptoms that might precede a diagnosis, and each patient follows their own…
Infectious diseases are practically represented by models with multiple states and complex transition rules corresponding to, for example, birth, death, infection, recovery, disease progression, and quarantine. In addition, networks…
Statistical models often require inputs that are not completely known. This can occur when inputs are measured with error, indirectly, or when they are predicted using another model. In environmental epidemiology, air pollution exposure is…
We investigate state-level age-specific mortality trends based on the United States Mortality Database (USMDB) published by the Human Mortality Database. In tandem with looking at the longevity experience across the 51 states, we also…
Intensive longitudinal biomarker data are increasingly common in scientific studies that seek temporally granular understanding of the role of behavioral and physiological factors in relation to outcomes of interest. Intensive longitudinal…
Not only does mobile health technology enable researchers to track changes in multiple longitudinal outcomes of interest and to record the occurrence of health-related events over time, but it also allows for the delivery of repeated…
Count outcomes in longitudinal studies are frequent in clinical and engineering studies. In frequentist and Bayesian statistical analysis, methods such as Mixed linear models allow the variability or correlation within individuals to be…
Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…
Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…