Related papers: Hidden Markov Modeling over Graphs

Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…

We introduce multiple hidden Markov models (MHMMs) where an observed multivariate categorical time series depends on an unobservable multivariate Mar- kov chain. MHMMs provide an elegant framework for specifying various independence…

In a variety of online settings involving interaction with end-users it is critical for the systems to adapt to changes in user preferences. User preferences on items tend to change over time due to a variety of factors such as change in…

Behavior trees are rapidly attracting interest in robotics and human task-related motion tracking. However no algorithms currently exist to track or identify parameters of BTs under noisy observations. We report a new relationship between…

The stock market presents a challenging environment for accurately predicting future stock prices due to its intricate and ever-changing nature. However, the utilization of advanced methodologies can significantly enhance the precision of…

We consider probabilistic systems with hidden state and unobservable transitions, an extension of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that in particular admits unobservable {\epsilon}-transitions (also called null transitions), allowing state…

The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…

We propose the Gaussian-Linear Hidden Markov model (GLHMM), a generalisation of different types of HMMs commonly used in neuroscience. In short, the GLHMM is a general framework where linear regression is used to flexibly parameterise the…

We present and analyse three online algorithms for learning in discrete Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compare them with the Baldi-Chauvin Algorithm. Using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a measure of generalisation error we draw…

There is an increase in interest to model driving maneuver patterns via the automatic unsupervised clustering of naturalistic sequential kinematic driving data. The patterns learned are often used in transportation research areas such as…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have become very popular as a computational tool for the analysis of sequential data. They are memoryless machines which transition from one internal state to another, while producing symbols. These symbols…

Ecological systems can often be characterised by changes among a finite set of underlying states pertaining to individuals, populations, communities, or entire ecosystems through time. Owing to the inherent difficulty of empirical field…

We consider the smoothing probabilities of hidden Markov model (HMM). We show that under fairly general conditions for HMM, the exponential forgetting still holds, and the smoothing probabilities can be well approximated with the ones of…

In this paper, we introduce a variant of hidden Markov models in which the transition probabilities between the states, as well as the emission distributions, are not constant in time but vary in a periodic manner. This class of models,…

We develop a predictive-first optimisation framework for streaming hidden Markov models. Unlike classical approaches that prioritise full posterior recovery under a fully specified generative model, we assume access to regime-specific…

Logical hidden Markov models (LOHMMs) upgrade traditional hidden Markov models to deal with sequences of structured symbols in the form of logical atoms, rather than flat characters. This note formally introduces LOHMMs and presents…

We show that maximum entropy (maxent) models can be modeled with certain kinds of HMMs, allowing us to construct maxent models with hidden variables, hidden state sequences, or other characteristics. The models can be trained using the…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) can be accurately approximated using co-occurrence frequencies of pairs and triples of observations by using a fast spectral method in contrast to the usual slow methods like EM or Gibbs sampling. We provide a…

This paper presents a new and flexible prognostics framework based on a higher order hidden semi-Markov model (HOHSMM) for systems or components with unobservable health states and complex transition dynamics. The HOHSMM extends the basic…

We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…