Related papers: Hidden Markov Models for Longitudinal Rating Data …
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration…
Since the early days of digital communication, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) have now been routinely used in speech recognition, processing of natural languages, images, and in bioinformatics. An HMM $(X_i,Y_i)_{i\ge 1}$ assumes observations…
Working on the daily closing prices and logreturns, in this paper we deal with the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to forecast the price of the EUR/USD Futures. The aim of our work is to understand how the HMMs describe different…
Time series subject to change in regime have attracted much interest in domains such as econometry, finance or meteorology. For discrete-valued regimes, some models such as the popular Hidden Markov Chain (HMC) describe time series whose…
We show how models for prediction with expert advice can be defined concisely and clearly using hidden Markov models (HMMs); standard HMM algorithms can then be used to efficiently calculate, among other things, how the expert predictions…
This work proposes a multi-agent filtering algorithm over graphs for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs), which can be used for sequential state estimation or for tracking opinion formation over dynamic social networks. We show that…
Model stealing, where a learner tries to recover an unknown model via carefully chosen queries, is a critical problem in machine learning, as it threatens the security of proprietary models and the privacy of data they are trained on. In…
This research focuses on the algorithms and approaches for learning Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and compares HMM learning methods and algorithms. HMM is a statistical Markov model in which the system being modeled is assumed to be a Markov…
In a mixed-traffic scenario where both autonomous vehicles and human-driving vehicles exist, a timely prediction of driving intentions of nearby human-driving vehicles is essential for the safe and efficient driving of an autonomous…
We consider penalized estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) with multivariate Normal observations. In the moderate-to-large dimensional setting, estimation for HMMs remains challenging in practice, due to several concerns arising from…
Labeling of sequential data is a prevalent meta-problem for a wide range of real world applications. While the first-order Hidden Markov Models (HMM) provides a fundamental approach for unsupervised sequential labeling, the basic model does…
Searches for persistent gravitational radiation from nonpulsating neutron stars in young supernova remnants (SNRs) are computationally challenging because of rapid stellar braking. We describe a practical, efficient, semi-coherent search…
We propose DenseHMM - a modification of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) that allows to learn dense representations of both the hidden states and the observables. Compared to the standard HMM, transition probabilities are not atomic but composed…
We consider likelihood-based two-step estimation of latent variable models, in which just the measurement model is estimated in the first step and the measurement parameters are then fixed at their estimated values in the second step where…
This study introduces an integrated framework for predictive causal inference designed to overcome limitations inherent in conventional single model approaches. Specifically, we combine a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for spatial health state…
We develop a recursion for hidden Markov model of any order h, which allows us to obtain the posterior distribution of the latent state at every occasion, given the previous h states and the observed data. With respect to the well-known…
We present an exploratory restricted latent class model where response data is for a single time point, polytomous, and differing across items, and where latent classes reflect a multi-attribute state where each attribute is ordinal. Our…
The authors present a cyber-physical systems study on the estimation of driver behavior in autonomous vehicles and vehicle safety systems. Extending upon previous work, the approach described is suitable for the long term estimation and…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are widely used statistical models for modeling sequential data. The parameter estimation for HMMs from time series data is an important learning problem. The predominant methods for parameter estimation are…
We present a new algorithm for discovering patterns in time series and other sequential data. We exhibit a reliable procedure for building the minimal set of hidden, Markovian states that is statistically capable of producing the behavior…