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Time series forecasting based on deep architectures has been gaining popularity in recent years due to their ability to model complex non-linear temporal dynamics. The recurrent neural network is one such model capable of handling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-28 Zexuan Yin , Paolo Barucca

This work aims to estimate the drift and diffusion functions in stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by a particular class of L\'evy processes with finite jump intensity, using neural networks. We propose a framework that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-10 Jose-Hermenegildo Ramirez-Gonzalez , Ying Sun

This paper introduces a randomized tamed Euler scheme tailored for L\'evy-driven stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with superlinear random coefficients and Carath\'eodory-type drift. Under assumptions that allow for time-irregular…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-10-22 Sani Biswas , Joaquin Fontbona

The problem of the construction of strong approximations with a given order of convergence for jump-diffusion equations is studied. General approximation schemes are constructed for L\'evy type stochastic differential equation. In…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-22 Michał Barski

Mathematical models for complex systems are often accompanied with uncertainties. The goal of this paper is to extract a stochastic differential equation governing model with observation on stationary probability distributions. We develop a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Xiaoli Chen , Hui Wang , Jinqiao Duan

Modelling extreme events and heavy-tailed phenomena is central to building reliable predictive systems in domains such as finance, climate science, and safety-critical AI. While L\'evy processes provide a natural mathematical framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Yaman Kindap , Manfred Opper , Benjamin Dupuis , Umut Simsekli , Tolga Birdal

Learning continuous-time stochastic dynamics is a fundamental and essential problem in modeling sporadic time series, whose observations are irregular and sparse in both time and dimension. For a given system whose latent states and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-30 Yingru Liu , Yucheng Xing , Xuewen Yang , Xin Wang , Jing Shi , Di Jin , Zhaoyue Chen

We present a deep neural network for a model-free prediction of a chaotic dynamical system from noisy observations. The proposed deep learning model aims to predict the conditional probability distribution of a state variable. The Long…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-10-05 Kyongmin Yeo

We propose an effective explicit numerical scheme for simulating solutions of stochastic differential equations with confining superlinear drift terms, driven by multiplicative heavy-tailed L\'evy noise. The scheme is designed to prevent…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-01-21 Ilya Pavlyukevich , Olga Aryasova , Alexei Chechkin , Oleksii Kulyk

Representations of sequential data are commonly based on the assumption that observed sequences are realizations of an unknown underlying stochastic process, where the learning problem includes determination of the model parameters. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-17 Ronny Hug , Wolfgang Hübner , Michael Arens

This paper establishes a stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems governed by time-changed forward-backward stochastic differential equations with L\'evy noise. The system incorporates a random, non-decreasing operational…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-27 Jingwei Chen , Jun Ye , Feng Chen

With the rapid development of computational techniques and scientific tools, great progress of data-driven analysis has been made to extract governing laws of dynamical systems from data. Despite the wide occurrences of non-Gaussian…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-10-12 Yubin Lu , Yang Li , Jinqiao Duan

We present a Bayesian non-parametric way of inferring stochastic differential equations for both regression tasks and continuous-time dynamical modelling. The work has high emphasis on the stochastic part of the differential equation, also…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Martin Jørgensen , Marc Peter Deisenroth , Hugh Salimbeni

The equation with the time fractional substantial derivative and space fractional derivative describes the distribution of the functionals of the L\'evy flights; and the equation is derived as the macroscopic limit of the continuous time…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-04-27 Minghua Chen , Weihua Deng

Calibrating a L\'evy process usually requires characterizing its jump distribution. Traditionally this problem can be solved with nonparametric estimation using the empirical characteristic functions (ECF), assuming certain regularity, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-30 Kailai Xu , Eric Darve

This paper considers stochastic population dynamics driven by Levy noise. The contributions of this paper lie in that (a) Using Khasminskii-Mao theorem, we show that the stochastic differential equation associated with the model has a…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-05-09 Jianhai Bao , Chenggui Yuan

We consider a general class of high order weak approximation schemes for stochastic differential equations driven by L\'evy processes with infinite activity. These schemes combine a compound Poisson approximation for the jump part of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-24 Arturo Kohatsu-Higa , Salvador Ortiz-Latorre , Peter Tankov

We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Zoey Yi Zhao , Meng Xie , Mike West

Financial returns are known to exhibit heavy tails, volatility clustering and abrupt jumps that are poorly captured by classical diffusion models. Advances in machine learning have enabled highly flexible functional forms for conditional…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-03 Ziyao Wang , Svetlozar T Rachev

This paper studies stabilities of stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by time-changed L\'evy noise in both probability and moment sense. This provides more flexibility in modeling schemes in application areas including physics,…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-27 Erkan Nane , Yinan Ni