Related papers: Low-rank variational Bayes correction to the Lapla…

To address the scalability limitations of Gaussian process (GP) regression, several approximation techniques have been proposed. One such method is based on tensor networks, which utilizes an exponential number of basis functions without…

Variational mean field approximations tend to struggle with contemporary overparametrized deep neural networks. Where a Bayesian treatment is usually associated with high-quality predictions and uncertainties, the practical reality has been…

Laplace approximations are classic, computationally lightweight means for constructing Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). As in other approximate BNNs, one cannot necessarily expect the induced predictive uncertainty to be calibrated. Here we…

Most applications of Bayesian Inference for parameter estimation and model selection in astrophysics involve the use of Monte Carlo techniques such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling. However, these techniques are time…

Posterior predictive p-values (ppps) have become popular tools for Bayesian model assessment, being general-purpose and easy to use. However, interpretation can be difficult because their distribution is not uniform under the hypothesis…

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

Misclassified variables used in regression models, either as a covariate or as the response, may lead to biased estimators and incorrect inference. Even though Bayesian models to adjust for misclassification error exist, it has not been…

Variational Bayes (VB), a method originating from machine learning, enables fast and scalable estimation of complex probabilistic models. Thus far, applications of VB in discrete choice analysis have been limited to mixed logit models with…

Variational autoencoders employ an amortized inference model to approximate the posterior of latent variables. However, such amortized variational inference faces two challenges: (1) the limited posterior expressiveness of fully-factorized…

Variational Bayes (VB) is a popular estimation method for Bayesian inference. However, most existing VB algorithms are restricted to cases where the likelihood is tractable, which precludes their use in many important situations. Tran et…

Due to its self-regularizing nature and its ability to quantify uncertainty, the Bayesian approach has achieved excellent recovery performance across a wide range of sparse signal recovery applications. However, most existing methods are…

We propose a black-box variational inference method to approximate intractable distributions with an increasingly rich approximating class. Our method, termed variational boosting, iteratively refines an existing variational approximation…

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

Mixtures of linear mixed models (MLMMs) are useful for clustering grouped data and can be estimated by likelihood maximization through the EM algorithm. The conventional approach to determining a suitable number of components is to compare…

In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods perform inference on model-specific parameters of mechanistically motivated parametric statistical models when evaluating likelihoods is difficult. Central to the success of ABC methods is…

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

The Laplace approximation is an old, but frequently used method to approximate integrals for Bayesian calculations. In this paper we develop an extension of the Laplace approximation, by applying it iteratively to the residual, i.e., the…

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled approach for assessing the relative merits of competing computational models and propagating uncertainty into model selection decisions. However, BMC is often intractable for the popular…

The linearised Laplace method for estimating model uncertainty has received renewed attention in the Bayesian deep learning community. The method provides reliable error bars and admits a closed-form expression for the model evidence,…