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We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…

We study the performance of a stochastic algorithm based on the power method that adaptively learns the large deviation functions characterizing the fluctuations of additive functionals of Markov processes, used in physics to model…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-30 Francesco Coghi , Hugo Touchette

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used to estimate features of interest of a distribution. The Monte Carlo error in estimation has an asymptotic normal distribution whose multivariate nature has so far been ignored in the MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-05 Dootika Vats , James M. Flegal , Galin L. Jones

Monte Carlo simulations of systems of particles such as hard spheres or soft spheres with singular kernels can display around a phase transition prohibitively long convergence times when using traditional Hasting-Metropolis reversible…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-10-10 Athina Monemvassitis , Arnaud Guillin , Manon Michel

This paper considers a simulation-based estimator for a general class of Markovian processes and explores some strong consistency properties of the estimator. The estimation problem is defined over a continuum of invariant distributions…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-14 Manuel S. Santos

This note investigates invariance principles for sums of N(nt) iid radom variables, where n is an integer, t is a positive real number and N(u) is a stochastic process with nonnegative integer values. We show that the sequence of sums of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-10-11 Gane Samb Lo

This paper develops a new technique for the path approximation of one-dimensional stochastic processes, more precisely the Brownian motion and families of stochastic differential equations sharply linked to the Brownian motion (usually…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-16 Madalina Deaconu , Samuel Herrmann

This study explores a Gaussian quasi-likelihood approach for estimating parameters of diffusion processes with Markovian regime switching. Assuming the ergodicity under high-frequency sampling, we will show the asymptotic normality of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-19 Yuzhong Cheng , Hiroki Masuda

We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-03 Junfeng Wen , Bo Dai , Lihong Li , Dale Schuurmans

We prove an invariance principle (functional central limit theorem) for a vector-valued additive functional of a Markov chain for almost every starting point with respect to an ergodic equilibrium distribution. The hypothesis is a moment…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-10-20 F. Rassoul-Agha , T. Seppalainen

Time in-homogeneous cyclic Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers, including deterministic scan Gibbs samplers and Metropolis within Gibbs samplers, are extensively used for sampling from multi-dimensional distributions. We establish a…

Computation · Statistics 2024-05-17 Haoxiang Li , Qian Qin

This paper provides a general and abstract approach to approximate ergodic regimes of Markov and Feller processes. More precisely, we show that the recursive algorithm presented in Lamberton & Pages (2002) and based on simulation algorithms…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-17 Gilles Pagès , Clément Rey

Extreme value functionals of stochastic processes are inverse functionals of the first passage time -- a connection that renders their probability distribution functions equivalent. Here, we deepen this link and establish a framework for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2019-05-30 David Hartich , Aljaz Godec

Parametric estimation for diffusion processes is considered for high frequency observations over a fixed time interval. The processes solve stochastic differential equations with an unknown parameter in the diffusion coefficient. We find…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-03 Nina Munkholt Jakobsen , Michael Sørensen

In order to sample from a given target distribution (often of Gibbs type), the Monte Carlo Markov chain method consists in constructing an ergodic Markov process whose invariant measure is the target distribution. By sampling the Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Luc Rey-Bellet , Kostantinos Spiliopoulos

In this paper we survey the almost sure central limit theorem and its functional form (quenched) for stationary and ergodic processes. For additive functionals of a stationary and ergodic Markov chain these theorems are known under the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-04-17 Magda Peligrad

In this paper we estimate the rest of the approximation of a stationary process by a martingale in terms of the projections of partial sums. Then, based on this estimate, we obtain almost sure approximation of partial sums by a martingale…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-05-05 Florence Merlevède , Costel Peligrad , Magda Peligrad

A general theory of efficient estimation for ergodic diffusion processes sampled at high frequency with an infinite time horizon is presented. High frequency sampling is common in many applications, with finance as a prominent example. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-01-10 Michael Sørensen

Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Andreas Eberle , Carlo Marinelli

In this paper, we obtain precise rates of convergence in the strong invariance principle for stationary sequences of real-valued random variables satisfying weak dependence conditions including strong mixing in the sense of Rosenblatt…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-03-17 Florence Merlevède , Emmanuel Rio