Related papers: A new logistic growth model applied to COVID-19 fa…
In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
Background: To assist policy makers in taking adequate decisions to stop the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, accurate forecasting of the disease propagation is of paramount importance. Materials and Methods: This paper presents a deep learning…
This paper is concerned with the design of intermittent non-pharmaceutical strategies to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic exploiting network epidemiological models. Specifically, by studying a variational equation for the…
In their response to the COVID-19 outbreak, governments face the dilemma to balance public health and economy. Mobility plays a central role in this dilemma because the movement of people enables both economic activity and virus spread. We…
The analysis of complex longitudinal data such as COVID-19 deaths is challenging due to several inherent features: (i) Similarly-shaped profiles with different decay patterns; (ii) Unexplained variation among repeated measurements within…
Effective epidemic modeling is essential for managing public health crises, requiring robust methods to predict disease spread and optimize resource allocation. This study introduces a novel deep learning framework that advances time series…
COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing global pandemic which has caused unprecedented disruptions in the public health sector and global economy. The virus, SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the rapid transmission of coronavirus disease. Due to its…
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of fatalities worldwide. While vaccines are still under development, social distancing, extensive…
Throughout the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, decision makers have relied on forecasting models to determine and implement non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). In building the forecasting models, continuously updated…
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…
An outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus is ongoing from December 2019. As of July 22, 2020, it has caused an epidemic outbreak with more than 15 million confirmed infections and above 6 hundred thousand reported…
In this work, we integrate the predictive capabilities of compartmental disease dynamics models with machine learning ability to analyze complex, high-dimensional data and uncover patterns that conventional models may overlook.…
After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other…
The effective control of the COVID-19 pandemic is one the most challenging issues of nowadays. The design of optimal control policies is perplexed from a variety of social, political, economical and epidemiological factors. Here, based on…
COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…
This work validates a dynamic production network model, used to quantify the impact of economic shocks caused by COVID-19 in the UK, using data for Belgium. Because the model was published early during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, it relied…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…