Related papers: A new logistic growth model applied to COVID-19 fa…
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China is characterized by a distinctive algebraic, sub-exponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an…
The generalized logistic equation is used to interpret the COVID-19 epidemic data in several countries: Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Italy, Turkey and South Korea. The model coefficients are calculated: the growth rate and the…
COVID-19 is a global health crisis that has had unprecedented, widespread impact on households across the United States and has been declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO) [1]. According to Centers…
Epidemic modeling is an essential tool to understand the spread of the novel coronavirus and ultimately assist in disease prevention, policymaking, and resource allocation. In this article, we establish a state of the art interface between…
This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…
This study presents a new risk-averse multi-stage stochastic epidemics-ventilator-logistics compartmental model to address the resource allocation challenges of mitigating COVID-19. This epidemiological logistics model involves the…
The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three fatalities on January 20 and later…
Evaluating hospitals' performance and its relation to patients' characteristics is of utmost importance to ensure timely, effective, and optimal treatment. Such a matter is particularly relevant in areas and situations where the healthcare…
New coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has constituted a global pandemic and has spread to most countries and regions in the world. By understanding the development trend of a regional epidemic, the epidemic can be controlled using the…
The current outbreak of COVID-19 has called renewed attention to the need for sound statistical analysis for monitoring mortality patterns and trends over time. Excess mortality has been suggested as the most appropriate indicator to…
We develop a simple 3-dimensional iterative map model to forecast the global spread of the coronavirus disease. Our model contains at most two fitting parameters, which we determine from the data supplied by the world health organisation…
Motivated by the recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19), we propose a stochastic model of epidemic temporal growth and mitigation based on a time-modulated Hawkes process. The model is sufficiently rich to incorporate specific…
While many efforts are currently devoted to vaccines development and administration, social distancing measures, including severe restrictions such as lockdowns, remain fundamental tools to contain the spread of COVID-19. A crucial point…
We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without…
This paper deals with the problem of estimating variables in nonlinear models for the spread of disease and its application to the COVID-19 epidemic. First unconstrained methods are revisited and they are shown to correspond to the…
A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the…
The number of corona virus (COVID-19) infections grows worldwide. In order to create short term predictions to prepare for the extent of the global pandemic we analyze infection data from the top 25 affected countries. It is shown that all…
On 19th March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or lockdown measures. However,…
We introduce an extended generalised logistic growth model for discrete outcomes, in which a network structure can be specified to deal with spatial dependence and time dependence is dealt with using an Auto-Regressive approach. A major…
We have proposed a new form of growth rate for population ecology. Generally, the growth rate is dependent on the size of the population at that particular epoch. We have introduced an alternative time-dependent form of growth rate. This…