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The accurate prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the variances. Moreover, function…
We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and…
Reinforcement learning provides a framework for learning to control which actions to take towards completing a task through trial-and-error. In many applications observing interactions is costly, necessitating sample-efficient learning. In…
Learning dynamical models from data is not only fundamental but also holds great promise for advancing principle discovery, time-series prediction, and controller design. Among various approaches, Gaussian Process State-Space Models…
An exciting branch of machine learning research focuses on methods for learning, optimizing, and integrating unknown functions that are difficult or costly to evaluate. A popular Bayesian approach to this problem uses a Gaussian process…
Recent work on deep learning for tabular data demonstrates the strong performance of deep tabular models, often bridging the gap between gradient boosted decision trees and neural networks. Accuracy aside, a major advantage of neural models…
Gaussian processes are one of the dominant approaches in Bayesian learning. Although the approach has been applied to numerous problems with great success, it has a few fundamental limitations. Multiple methods in literature have addressed…
Through sequential construction of posteriors on observing data online, Bayes' theorem provides a natural framework for continual learning. We develop Variational Auto-Regressive Gaussian Processes (VAR-GPs), a principled posterior updating…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates,…
Expected Improvement (EI) is arguably the most widely used acquisition function in Bayesian optimization. However, it is often challenging to enhance the performance with EI due to its sensitivity to numerical precision. Previously, Hutter…
Bayesian optimization has emerged at the forefront of expensive black-box optimization due to its data efficiency. Recent years have witnessed a proliferation of studies on the development of new Bayesian optimization algorithms and their…
Exploration and adaptation to new tasks in a transfer learning setup is a central challenge in reinforcement learning. In this work, we build on the idea of modeling a distribution over policies in a Bayesian deep reinforcement learning…
Bayesian optimization (BO) is an effective technique for black-box optimization. However, its applicability is typically limited to moderate-budget problems due to the cubic complexity of fitting the Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.…
Transfer learning is a popular paradigm for utilizing existing knowledge from previous learning tasks to improve the performance of new ones. It has enjoyed numerous empirical successes and inspired a growing number of theoretical studies.…
Gaussian Process (GP) regression is a popular and sample-efficient approach for many engineering applications, where observations are expensive to acquire, and is also a central ingredient of Bayesian optimization (BO), a highly prevailing…
Gaussian process regression is a popular Bayesian framework for surrogate modeling of expensive data sources. As part of a broader effort in scientific machine learning, many recent works have incorporated physical constraints or other a…
We propose an active learning method for discovering low-dimensional structure in high-dimensional Gaussian process (GP) tasks. Such problems are increasingly frequent and important, but have hitherto presented severe practical…
Gaussian Processes are widely used for regression tasks. A known limitation in the application of Gaussian Processes to regression tasks is that the computation of the solution requires performing a matrix inversion. The solution also…
Multi-task/Multi-output learning seeks to exploit correlation among tasks to enhance performance over learning or solving each task independently. In this paper, we investigate this problem in the context of Gaussian Processes (GPs) and…
The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal…