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One of the fundamental problems in machine learning is the estimation of a probability distribution from data. Many techniques have been proposed to study the structure of data, most often building around the assumption that observations…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-02-22 Oren Rippel , Ryan Prescott Adams

We examine the non-asymptotic properties of robust density ratio estimation (DRE) in contaminated settings. Weighted DRE is the most promising among existing methods, exhibiting doubly strong robustness from an asymptotic perspective. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-11 Ryosuke Nagumo , Hironori Fujisawa

We propose a model for multiclass classification of time series to make a prediction as early and as accurate as possible. The matrix sequential probability ratio test (MSPRT) is known to be asymptotically optimal for this setting, but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-01 Taiki Miyagawa , Akinori F. Ebihara

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has been introduced for solving stochastic programs where the distribution of the random parameters is unknown and must be estimated by samples from that distribution. A key element of DRO is the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-09 Xi Chen , Qihang Lin , Guanglin Xu

Modes and ridges of the probability density function behind observed data are useful geometric features. Mode-seeking clustering assigns cluster labels by associating data samples with the nearest modes, and estimation of density ridges…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-03 Hiroaki Sasaki , Takafumi Kanamori , Aapo Hyvärinen , Gang Niu , Masashi Sugiyama

Dealing with distribution shifts is one of the central challenges for modern machine learning. One fundamental situation is the covariate shift, where the input distributions of data change from training to testing stages while the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Yu-Jie Zhang , Zhen-Yu Zhang , Peng Zhao , Masashi Sugiyama

Divergence estimators based on direct approximation of density-ratios without going through separate approximation of numerator and denominator densities have been successfully applied to machine learning tasks that involve distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-06-24 Makoto Yamada , Taiji Suzuki , Takafumi Kanamori , Hirotaka Hachiya , Masashi Sugiyama

Regression aims at estimating the conditional mean of output given input. However, regression is not informative enough if the conditional density is multimodal, heteroscedastic, and asymmetric. In such a case, estimating the conditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-04-29 Voot Tangkaratt , Ning Xie , Masashi Sugiyama

In many statistical and econometric applications, we gather individual samples from various interconnected populations that undeniably exhibit common latent structures. Utilizing a model that incorporates these latent structures for such…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Archer Gong Zhang , Jiahua Chen

Estimating the ratio of two probability densities from finitely many samples, is a central task in machine learning and statistics. In this work, we show that a large class of kernel methods for density ratio estimation suffers from error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Lukas Gruber , Markus Holzleitner , Johannes Lehner , Sepp Hochreiter , Werner Zellinger

Density ratio estimation serves as an important technique in the unsupervised machine learning toolbox. However, such ratios are difficult to estimate for complex, high-dimensional data, particularly when the densities of interest are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-07 Kristy Choi , Madeline Liao , Stefano Ermon

Estimating density ratios between pairs of intractable data distributions is a core problem in probabilistic modeling, enabling principled comparisons of sample likelihoods under different data-generating processes across conditions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-02 Egor Antipov , Alessandro Palma , Lorenzo Consoli , Stephan Günnemann , Andrea Dittadi , Fabian J. Theis

Estimating uncertainty in deep learning models is critical for reliable decision-making in high-stakes applications such as medical imaging. Prior research has established that the difference between an input sample and its reconstructed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Xinran Xu , Li Rong Wang , Xiuyi Fan

Density estimation plays a crucial role in many data analysis tasks, as it infers a continuous probability density function (PDF) from discrete samples. Thus, it is used in tasks as diverse as analyzing population data, spatial locations in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-26 Patrik Puchert , Pedro Hermosilla , Tobias Ritschel , Timo Ropinski

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) has become a powerful framework for estimation under uncertainty, offering strong out-of-sample performance and principled regularization. In this paper, we propose a DRO-based method for linear…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Liviu Aolaritei , Soroosh Shafiee , Florian Dörfler

We propose a function-valued evaluation metric for generative models based on the relative density ratio (RDR) designed to characterize distributional differences between real and generated samples. As an evaluation metric, the RDR function…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-29 Yuliang Xu , Yun Wei , Li Ma

Decision trees and random forest remain highly competitive for classification on medium-sized, standard datasets due to their robustness, minimal preprocessing requirements, and interpretability. However, a single tree suffers from high…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-02 Cencheng Shen , Yuexiao Dong , Carey E. Priebe

Parametric statistical models that are implicitly defined in terms of a stochastic data generating process are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines because they enable accurate modeling. However, learning the parameters from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-24 Traiko Dinev , Michael U. Gutmann

The goal of this study is to introduce a unified computational framework for simulating random iteration equations (RIE), understood as iteration equations containing random variables. The novelty of this work is that full probability…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Wolfgang Hoegele

Loss functions play a crucial role in deep metric learning thus a variety of them have been proposed. Some supervise the learning process by pairwise or tripletwise similarity constraints while others take advantage of structured similarity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-25 Xinshao Wang , Elyor Kodirov , Yang Hua , Neil Robertson