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We present Sequential Neural Likelihood (SNL), a new method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where the likelihood is intractable but simulating data from the model is possible. SNL trains an autoregressive flow on simulated data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-23 George Papamakarios , David C. Sterratt , Iain Murray

Stochastic variational Bayes algorithms have become very popular in the machine learning literature, particularly in the context of nonparametric Bayesian inference. These algorithms replace the true but intractable posterior distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-04 Pedro Regueiro , Abel Rodríguez , Juan Sosa

Bayesian methods have shown success in deep learning applications. For example, in predictive tasks, Bayesian neural networks leverage Bayesian reasoning of model uncertainty to improve the reliability and uncertainty awareness of deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Wenlong Chen , Bolian Li , Ruqi Zhang , Yingzhen Li

Computational methods for learning to sample from the Boltzmann distribution -- where the target distribution is known only up to an unnormalized energy function -- have advanced significantly recently. Due to the lack of explicit target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-26 Guan-Horng Liu , Jaemoo Choi , Yongxin Chen , Benjamin Kurt Miller , Ricky T. Q. Chen

In this paper we present a novel sampling-based numerical scheme designed to solve a certain class of stochastic optimal control problems, utilizing forward and backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs). By means of a nonlinear…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-06-18 Ioannis Exarchos , Evangelos A. Theodorou

Homotopy approaches to Bayesian inference have found widespread use especially if the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the prior and the posterior distribution is large. Here we extend one of these homotopy approach to include an…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-11-04 Sebastian Reich

We introduce an ordinary differential equation (ODE) based deep generative method for learning conditional distributions, named Conditional F\"ollmer Flow. Starting from a standard Gaussian distribution, the proposed flow could approximate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-14 Jinyuan Chang , Zhao Ding , Yuling Jiao , Ruoxuan Li , Jerry Zhijian Yang

Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-19 Joshua Daniel Loyal

This paper motivates the use of random-bridges -- stochastic processes conditioned to take target distributions at fixed timepoints -- in the realm of generative modelling. Herein, random-bridges can act as stochastic transports between two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Stefano Goria , Levent A. Mengütürk , Murat C. Mengütürk , Berkan Sesen

We investigate uncertainty estimation and multimodality via the non-deterministic predictions of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) in fluid simulations. To this end, we deploy BNNs in three challenging experimental test-cases of increasing…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2022-05-04 Maximilian Mueller , Robin Greif , Frank Jenko , Nils Thuerey

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have shown promising performance for language modeling. However, traditional training of RNNs using back-propagation through time often suffers from overfitting. One reason for this is that stochastic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-04-25 Zhe Gan , Chunyuan Li , Changyou Chen , Yunchen Pu , Qinliang Su , Lawrence Carin

This paper focuses on Bayesian inference in a federated learning context (FL). While several distributed MCMC algorithms have been proposed, few consider the specific limitations of FL such as communication bottlenecks and statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-02 Vincent Plassier , Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines

Approximate inference in Bayesian deep networks exhibits a dilemma of how to yield high fidelity posterior approximations while maintaining computational efficiency and scalability. We tackle this challenge by introducing a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Son Nguyen , Duong Nguyen , Khai Nguyen , Khoat Than , Hung Bui , Nhat Ho

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Diederik P Kingma , Max Welling

Bayes' rule is widely regarded as the canonical prescription for belief updating. We show, however, that one can arbitrarily preserve pre-specified beliefs while appearing to perform Bayesian updates via "prior hacking": engineering a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-20 Clive Cenxin Aw , Peter Sidajaya

Many modern time-series datasets contain large numbers of output response variables sampled for prolonged periods of time. For example, in neuroscience, the activities of 100s-1000's of neurons are recorded during behaviors and in response…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-15 Rui Meng , Kristofer Bouchard

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-08 Ben Swallow , David A. Rand , Giorgos Minas

We propose a unified framework for adaptive connection sampling in graph neural networks (GNNs) that generalizes existing stochastic regularization methods for training GNNs. The proposed framework not only alleviates over-smoothing and…

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Antonios Alexos , Alex Boyd , Stephan Mandt

The connections between optimal control and Bayesian inference have long been recognised, with the field of stochastic (optimal) control combining these frameworks for the solution of partially observable control problems. In particular,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-03-10 Manuel Baltieri
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