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Computational models in chemistry rely on a number of approximations. The effect of such approximations on observables derived from them is often unpredictable. Therefore, it is challenging to quantify the uncertainty of a computational…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2017-04-21 Gregor N. Simm , Jonny Proppe , Markus Reiher

This paper presents a novel approach to functional principal component analysis (FPCA) in Bayes spaces in the setting where densities are the object of analysis, but only few individual samples from each density are observed. We use the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-21 Lisa Steyer , Sonja Greven

The performance of machine learning classification algorithms are evaluated by estimating metrics, often from the confusion matrix, using training data and cross-validation. However, these do not prove that the best possible performance has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 L. Crow , S. J. Watts

We consider the classification problem of a high-dimensional mixture of two Gaussians with general covariance matrices. Using the replica method from statistical physics, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of a general class of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Hanwen Huang , Peng Zeng

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-04 Anas Cherradi , Yazid Janati , Alain Durmus , Sylvain Le Corff , Yohan Petetin , Julien Stoehr

Estimating conditional average dose responses (CADR) is an important but challenging problem. Estimators must correctly model the potentially complex relationships between covariates, interventions, doses, and outcomes. In recent years, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-13 Christopher Bockel-Rickermann , Toon Vanderschueren , Tim Verdonck , Wouter Verbeke

Probabilities of causation (PoCs), such as the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), are important tools for decision making but are generally not point identifiable. Existing work has derived bounds for these quantities using…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Tianyuan Cheng , Ruirui Mao , Judea Pearl , Ang Li

We consider the fundamental problem of matching a template to a signal. We do so by M-estimation, which encompasses procedures that are robust to gross errors (i.e., outliers). Using standard results from empirical process theory, we derive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-10 Ery Arias-Castro , Lin Zheng

Random variables of the generalized Pareto distribution, can be transformed to that of the Pareto distribution. Explicit expressions exist for the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. The performance…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-11-06 J. Martin van Zyl

We consider the problem of distributed estimation, where local processors observe independent samples conditioned on a common random parameter of interest, map the observations to a finite number of bits, and send these bits to a remote…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-04-24 Aolin Xu , Maxim Raginsky

We derive Concentration of Measure (CoM) inequalities for randomized Toeplitz matrices. These inequalities show that the norm of a high-dimensional signal mapped by a Toeplitz matrix to a low-dimensional space concentrates around its mean…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Borhan M. Sanandaji , Tyrone L. Vincent , Michael B. Wakin

A confidence distribution is a complete tool for making frequentist inference for a parameter of interest $\psi$ based on an assumed parametric model. Indeed, it allows to reach point estimates, to assess their precision, to set up tests…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-20 Elena Bortolato , Laura Ventura

We describe a method to computationally estimate the probability density function of a univariate random variable by applying the maximum entropy principle with some local conditions given by Gaussian functions. The estimation errors and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-21 Mihail-Ioan Pop

This survey paper focuses on the estimation schemes in molecular communication (MC) systems. The existing studies in estimation schemes can be divided into parameter estimation (e.g., distance, diffusion coefficient, and flow velocity) and…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Xinyu Huang , Yuting Fang , Nan Yang

In regression modelling approach, the main step is to fit the regression line as close as possible to the target variable. In this process most algorithms try to fit all of the data in a single line and hence fitting all parts of target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-07 Kumarjit Pathak , Jitin Kapila , Aasheesh Barvey , Nikit Gawande

We develop diffusion models for time-varying correlation using stochastic processes defined on the unit circle. Specifically, we study Brownian motion on the circle and the von Mises diffusion, and propose their use as continuous-time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-05 Sourav Majumdar , Arnab Kumar Laha

We present a new finite-sample analysis of M-estimators of locations in $\mathbb{R}^d$ using the tool of the influence function. In particular, we show that the deviations of an M-estimator can be controlled thanks to its influence function…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-23 Timothée Mathieu

This paper studies a generally applicable, sensitive, and intuitive error metric for the assessment of robotic swarm density controller performance. Inspired by vortex blob numerical methods, it overcomes the shortcomings of a common…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-09-18 Brendon G. Anderson , Eva Loeser , Marissa Gee , Fei Ren , Swagata Biswas , Olga Turanova , Matt Haberland , Andrea L. Bertozzi

Machine learning models are often evaluated using point estimates of performance metrics such as accuracy, F1 score, or mean squared error. Such summaries fail to capture the inherent variability induced by stochastic elements of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Christoph Lehmann , Yahor Paromau

Optimal quantization for mixed distributions has emerged as a compelling area of study. In this work, we have focused on a mixed distribution formed from two uniform distributions with partially overlapping supports. For this class of…