Related papers: Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Event Extraction
Accurate forecasting of commodity price spikes is vital for countries with limited economic buffers, where sudden increases can strain national budgets, disrupt import-reliant sectors, and undermine food and energy security. This paper…
By capturing the prevailing sentiment and market mood, textual data has become increasingly vital for forecasting commodity prices, particularly in metal markets. However, the effectiveness of lightweight, finetuned large language models…
The price of oil can rise because of a disruption to supply or an increase in demand. The nature of the price change determines the dynamic effects. As Kilian (2009) put it: "not all oil price shocks are alike." Using the latest available…
Natural gas is undoubtedly an essential component of the global energy system. Accurate short-term forecasting of natural gas price is challenging due to pronounced volatility driven by seasonal demand patterns, geopolitical developments,…
Global oil demand is rapidly increasing and is expected to reach 106.3 million barrels per day by 2040. Thus, it is vital for hydrocarbon extraction industries to forecast their production to optimize their operations and avoid losses. Big…
Commodity price time series possess interesting features, such as heavy-tailedness, skewness, heteroskedasticity, and non-linear dependence structures. These features pose challenges for modeling and forecasting. In this work, we explore…
Incorporating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations into systematic investments has drawn numerous attention recently. In this paper, we focus on the ESG events in financial news flow and exploring the predictive power…
Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…
The increasing influence of unstructured external information, such as news articles, on stock prices has attracted growing attention in financial markets. Despite recent advances, most existing newsbased forecasting models represent all…
Forecasting oil production from oilfields with multiple wells is an important problem in petroleum and geothermal energy extraction, as well as energy storage technologies. The accuracy of oil forecasts is a critical determinant of economic…
This study aims to use simultaneous quantile regression (SQR) to examine the impact of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty including global pandemic, geopolitical risk on the futures returns of crude oil (ROC). The data for this study…
We construct a thermodynamic model for theoretical calculation of the boiling process of multicomponent mixtures of hydrocarbons (e.g., crude oil). The model governs kinetics of the mixture composition in the course of the distillation…
In democracies like India, people are free to express their views and demands. Sometimes this causes situations of civil unrest such as protests, rallies, and marches. These events may be disruptive in nature and are often held without…
This paper aims to examine whether the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and uncertainty changes have different impacts on crude oil futures volatility. We establish single-factor and two-factor models under the GARCH-MIDAS…
Oil production forecasting is an important step in controlling the cost-effect and monitoring the functioning of petroleum reservoirs. As a result, oil production forecasting makes it easier for reservoir engineers to develop feasible…
We study the impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market volatility. We jointly analyze three different structural oil market shocks (i.e., aggregate demand, oil supply, and oil-specific demand shocks) and stock market volatility…
It is reported that financial news, especially financial events expressed in news, provide information to investors' long/short decisions and influence the movements of stock markets. Motivated by this, we leverage financial event streams…
Energy markets exhibit complex causal relationships between weather patterns, generation technologies, and price formation, with regime changes occurring continuously rather than at discrete break points. Current approaches model…
Accurate prediction of electricity prices plays an essential role in the electricity market. To reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices, price intervals are predicted. This paper proposes a novel prediction interval construction…
In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price…