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We introduce a fine-grained framework for uncertainty quantification of predictive models under distributional shifts. This framework distinguishes the shift in covariate distributions from that in the conditional relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Jiahao Ai , Zhimei Ren

In this paper, we consider the contextual robust optimization problem under an out-of-distribution setting. The contextual robust optimization problem considers a risk-sensitive objective function for an optimization problem with the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-06-06 Zhongze Cai , Hansheng Jiang , Xiaocheng Li

Distribution shift occurs when the test distribution differs from the training distribution, and it can considerably degrade performance of machine learning models deployed in the real world. Temporal shifts -- distribution shifts arising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Huaxiu Yao , Caroline Choi , Bochuan Cao , Yoonho Lee , Pang Wei Koh , Chelsea Finn

This paper addresses the covariate shift problem in the context of nonparametric regression within reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs). Covariate shift arises in supervised learning when the input distributions of the training and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-21 Andrea Della Vecchia , Arnaud Mavakala Watusadisi , Ernesto De Vito , Lorenzo Rosasco

Modern deep convolutional networks (CNNs) are often criticized for not generalizing under distributional shifts. However, several recent breakthroughs in transfer learning suggest that these networks can cope with severe distribution shifts…

Most research designing novel predictive models, or employing existing ones, assumes that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. In practice, the data encountered at serving time often deviate from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Hanyu Duan , Yi Yang , Ahmed Abbasi , Kar Yan Tam

In many real applications of statistical learning, collecting sufficiently many training data is often expensive, time-consuming, or even unrealistic. In this case, a transfer learning approach, which aims to leverage knowledge from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-26 Baozhen Wang , Xingye Qiao

We consider the problem of using expert data with unobserved confounders for imitation and reinforcement learning. We begin by defining the problem of learning from confounded expert data in a contextual MDP setup. We analyze the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-14 Guy Tennenholtz , Assaf Hallak , Gal Dalal , Shie Mannor , Gal Chechik , Uri Shalit

Anomaly detection (AD) is the machine learning task of identifying highly discrepant abnormal samples by solely relying on the consistency of the normal training samples. Under the constraints of a distribution shift, the assumption that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-25 João B. S. Carvalho , Mengtao Zhang , Robin Geyer , Carlos Cotrini , Joachim M. Buhmann

Many existing approaches for generating predictions in settings with distribution shift model distribution shifts as adversarial or low-rank in suitable representations. In various real-world settings, however, we might expect shifts to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-31 Kirk Bansak , Elisabeth Paulson , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Consider a scenario where we have access to train data with both covariates and outcomes while test data only contains covariates. In this scenario, our primary aim is to predict the missing outcomes of the test data. With this objective in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-29 Masahiro Kato , Kota Matsui , Ryo Inokuchi

When machine learning models are deployed on a test distribution different from the training distribution, they can perform poorly, but overestimate their performance. In this work, we aim to better estimate a model's performance under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-08 Ching-Yao Chuang , Antonio Torralba , Stefanie Jegelka

The endeavor to preserve the generalization of a fair and invariant classifier across domains, especially in the presence of distribution shifts, becomes a significant and intricate challenge in machine learning. In response to this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 Chen Zhao , Kai Jiang , Xintao Wu , Haoliang Wang , Latifur Khan , Christan Grant , Feng Chen

Recent interest in the external validity of prediction models (i.e., the problem of different train and test distributions, known as dataset shift) has produced many methods for finding predictive distributions that are invariant to dataset…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-20 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Bryant Chen , Suchi Saria

Our goal is to improve reliability of Machine Learning (ML) systems deployed in the wild. ML models perform exceedingly well when test examples are similar to train examples. However, real-world applications are required to perform on any…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Vihari Piratla

Learning guarantees often rely on assumptions of i.i.d. data, which will likely be violated in practice once predictors are deployed to perform real-world tasks. Domain adaptation approaches thus appeared as a useful framework yielding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-29 Joao Monteiro , Xavier Gibert , Jianqiao Feng , Vincent Dumoulin , Dar-Shyang Lee

We consider a machine learning setup where one training dataset is used to train multiple models across slightly different data distributions. This occurs when customized models are needed for various deployment environments. To reduce…

We investigate robust linear regression where data may be contaminated by an oblivious adversary, i.e., an adversary than may know the data distribution but is otherwise oblivious to the realizations of the data samples. This model has been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-07 Tom Norman , Nir Weinberger , Kfir Y. Levy

Machine learning has demonstrated remarkable prediction accuracy over i.i.d data, but the accuracy often drops when tested with data from another distribution. In this paper, we aim to offer another view of this problem in a perspective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Haohan Wang , Zeyi Huang , Hanlin Zhang , Yong Jae Lee , Eric Xing

A default assumption in many machine learning scenarios is that the training and test samples are drawn from the same probability distribution. However, such an assumption is often violated in the real world due to non-stationarity of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-04 Tianyi Zhang , Ikko Yamane , Nan Lu , Masashi Sugiyama