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In this paper we examine quantile-stratified samples from a known univariate probability distribution, with stratification occurring over a partition of the quantile regions in the distribution. We examine some general properties of this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Ben O'Neill

We describe a new approach to the rare-event Monte Carlo sampling problem. This technique utilizes a symmetrization strategy to create probability distributions that are more highly connected and thus more easily sampled than their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-28 Nuria Plattner , J. D. Doll , Paul Dupuis , Hui Wang , Yufei Liu , J. E. Gubernatis

Adaptive Monte Carlo schemes developed over the last years usually seek to ensure ergodicity of the sampling process in line with MCMC tradition. This poses constraints on what is possible in terms of adaptation. In the general case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-22 Ingmar Schuster

Uniform sampling of training data has been commonly used in traditional stochastic optimization algorithms such as Proximal Stochastic Gradient Descent (prox-SGD) and Proximal Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent (prox-SDCA). Although uniform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-01-05 Peilin Zhao , Tong Zhang

In this work, we develop an importance sampling estimator by coupling the reduced-order model and the generative model in a problem setting of uncertainty quantification. The target is to estimate the probability that the quantity of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-12-20 Xiaoliang Wan , Shuangqing Wei

We develop a recently proposed importance-sampling Monte Carlo algorithm for sampling rare events and quenched variables in random disordered systems. We apply it to a two dimensional bond-diluted Ising model and study the Griffiths…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-13 Koji Hukushima , Yukito Iba

This paper investigates the use of stratified sampling as a variance reduction technique for approximating integrals over large dimensional spaces. The accuracy of this method critically depends on the choice of the space partition, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-15 Pierre Etoré , Gersende Fort , Benjamin Jourdain , Eric Moulines

Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are very efficient techniques designed to tune simulation estimators on-line. In this work, we present an alternative to stochastic approximation to tune the optimal change of measure in the context of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-10-23 Benjamin Jourdain , Jérôme Lelong

Performance-based engineering for natural hazards facilitates the design and appraisal of structures with rigorous evaluation of their uncertain structural behavior under potentially extreme stochastic loads expressed in terms of failure…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-05-11 Srinivasan Arunachalam , Seymour M. J. Spence

A new approach of obtaining stratified random samples from statistically dependent random variables is described. The proposed method can be used to obtain samples from the input space of a computer forward model in estimating expectations…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-25 Anirban Mondal , Abhijit Mandal

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

In this paper, we aim to compute numerical approximation integral by using an adaptive Monte Carlo algorithm. We propose a stratified sampling algorithm based on an iterative method which splits the strata following some quantities called…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Toni Sayah

The probability of rare and extreme events is an important quantity for design purposes. However, computing the probability of rare events can be expensive because only a few events, if any, can be observed. To this end, it is necessary to…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-01-08 Malik Hassanaly , Venkat Raman

Solving decision problems in complex, stochastic environments is often achieved by estimating the expected outcome of decisions via Monte Carlo sampling. However, sampling may overlook rare, but important events, which can severely impact…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-16 Lachlan Gibson , Marcus Hoerger , Dirk Kroese

We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-04 Francisco J. R. Ruiz , Michalis K. Titsias , David M. Blei

Science and engineering problems subject to uncertainty are frequently both computationally expensive and feature nonsmooth parameter dependence, making standard Monte Carlo too slow, and excluding efficient use of accelerated uncertainty…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-01 Per Pettersson , Sebastian Krumscheid

We investigate in this paper an alternative method to simulation based recursive importance sampling procedure to estimate the optimal change of measure for Monte Carlo simulations. We propose an algorithm which combines (vector and…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-09-20 Noufel Frikha , Abass Sagna

This paper focuses on the study of an original combination of the Multilevel Monte Carlo method introduced by Giles [10] and the popular importance sampling technique. To compute the optimal choice of the parameter involved in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-05 Mohamed Ben Alaya , Kaouther Hajji , Ahmed Kebaier

The estimation of the probability of rare events is an important task in reliability and risk assessment. We consider failure events that are expressed in terms of a limit state function, which depends on the solution of a partial…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-15 Fabian Wagner , Jonas Latz , Iason Papaioannou , Elisabeth Ullmann

Importance sampling is a common technique for Monte Carlo approximation, including Monte Carlo approximation of p-values. Here it is shown that a simple correction of the usual importance sampling p-values creates valid p-values, meaning…

Computation · Statistics 2011-04-12 Matthew T. Harrison