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Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting.…
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by…
A novel adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is presented. The algorithm utilizes sparsity in the partial correlation structure of a density to efficiently estimate the covariance matrix through the Cholesky factor of the precision…
Accurate macroeconomic forecasting has become harder amid geopolitical disruptions, policy reversals, and volatile financial markets. Conventional vector autoregressions (VARs) overfit in high dimensional settings, while threshold VARs…
Covariance steering (CS) synthesizes a control policy which drives the state's mean and covariance matrix towards desired values. Offering tractable computation of a closed-loop policy which can obey chance constraints in uncertain…
Stochastic kriging is a popular technique for simulation metamodeling due to its exibility and analytical tractability. Its computational bottleneck is the inversion of a covariance matrix, which takes $O(n^3)$ time in general and becomes…
Most applications of Bayesian Inference for parameter estimation and model selection in astrophysics involve the use of Monte Carlo techniques such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and nested sampling. However, these techniques are time…
This paper presents how the most recent improvements made on covariance matrix estimation and model order selection can be applied to the portfolio optimisation problem. The particular case of the Maximum Variety Portfolio is treated but…
With uncertain changes of the economic environment, macroeconomic downturns during recessions and crises can hardly be explained by a Gaussian structural shock. There is evidence that the distribution of macroeconomic variables is skewed…
Inverse problems involving partial differential equations (PDEs) are widely used in science and engineering. Although such problems are generally ill-posed, different regularisation approaches have been developed to ameliorate this problem.…
Although stochastic volatility and GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models have successfully described the volatility dynamics of univariate asset returns, extending them to the multivariate models with…
In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…
In this article, we explore Bayesian extensions of the tensor normal model through a geometric expansion of the multi-way covariance's Cholesky factor inspired by the Fr\'echet mean under the log-Cholesky metric. Specifically, within a…
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm for hidden Markov models, in a…
There is a lack of simple and scalable algorithms for uncertainty quantification. Bayesian methods quantify uncertainty through posterior and predictive distributions, but it is difficult to rapidly estimate summaries of these…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models offer a versatile framework for multivariate time series analysis, yet face critical challenges from over-parameterization and uncertain lag order. In this paper, we systematically compare…
Variable selection techniques have become increasingly popular amongst statisticians due to an increased number of regression and classification applications involving high-dimensional data where we expect some predictors to be unimportant.…
We establish a novel framework for learning a directed acyclic graph (DAG) when data are generated from a Gaussian, linear structural equation model. It consists of two parts: (1) introduce a permutation matrix as a new parameter within a…
The paper analyses cointegration in vector autoregressive processes (VARs) for the cases when both the number of coordinates, $N$, and the number of time periods, $T$, are large and of the same order. We propose a way to examine a VAR of…
Control variates are a well-established tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators. However, for large-scale problems including high-dimensional and large-sample settings, their advantages can be outweighed by a substantial…