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Overfitting, which happens when the number of parameters in a model is too large compared to the number of data points available for determining these parameters, is a serious and growing problem in survival analysis. While modern medicine…

Applications · Statistics 2017-09-13 ACC Coolen , JE Barrett , P Paga , CJ Perez-Vicente

We employ and examine vine copulas in modeling symmetric and asymmetric dependency structures and forecasting financial returns. We analyze the asset allocations performed during the 2008-2009 financial crisis and test different portfolio…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-24 Maziar Sahamkhadam , Andreas Stephan

With the rapid advances of deep learning, many computational methods have been developed to analyze nonlinear and complex right censored data via deep learning approaches. However, the majority of the methods focus on predicting survival…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Jong-Hyeon Jeong , Yichen Jia

Existing conformal prediction methods for time-to-event outcomes leverage only baseline covariates, producing prediction intervals that are insufficiently informative to facilitate decision making. We propose History-Aware Prediction Sets…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Yuyao Wang , Alexander W. Levis , Shu Yang , Larry Han

Interval-censoring frequently occurs in studies of chronic diseases where disease status is inferred from intermittently collected biomarkers. Although many methods have been developed to analyze such data, they typically assume perfect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Yuhao Deng , Donglin Zeng , Yuanjia Wang

Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Daphné Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

The Multiplicative Error Model (Engle (2002)) for nonnegative valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with nonnegative support. A multivariate extension allows…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-06 Fabrizio Cipollini , Robert F. Engle , Giampiero M. Gallo

The modeling of time-to-event data, also known as survival analysis, requires specialized methods that can deal with censoring and truncation, time-varying features and effects, and that extend to settings with multiple competing events.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-20 Andreas Bender , David Rügamer , Fabian Scheipl , Bernd Bischl

Recent research has shown the potential for neural networks to improve upon classical survival models such as the Cox model, which is widely used in clinical practice. Neural networks, however, typically rely on data that are centrally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-12 Dekai Zhang , Francesca Toni , Matthew Williams

An approach to modelling volatile financial return series using stationary d-vine copula processes combined with Lebesgue-measure-preserving transformations known as v-transforms is proposed. By developing a method of stochastically…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-15 Martin Bladt , Alexander J. McNeil

High-dimensional data sets are often available in genome-enabled predictions. Such data sets include nonlinear relationships with complex dependence structures. For such situations, vine copula based (quantile) regression is an important…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-24 Özge Sahin , Claudia Czado

We propose new resampling-based approaches to construct asymptotically valid time simultaneous confidence bands for cumulative hazard functions in multi-state Cox models. In particular, we exemplify the methodology in detail for the simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-02 Dennis Dobler , Markus Pauly , Thomas H. Scheike

While there is considerable effort to identify signaling pathways using linear Gaussian Bayesian networks from data, there is less emphasis of understanding and quantifying conditional densities and probabilities of nodes given its parents…

Applications · Statistics 2021-11-22 Claudia Czado , Sebastian Scharl

The Cox proportional hazards model is widely used in survival analysis to model time-to-event data. However, it faces significant computational challenges in the era of large-scale data, particularly when dealing with time-dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Miaomiao Su , Ruoyu Wang

Missing values with mixed data types is a common problem in a large number of machine learning applications such as processing of surveys and in different medical applications. Recently, Gaussian copula models have been suggested as a means…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-02 Benjamin Christoffersen , Mark Clements , Keith Humphreys , Hedvig Kjellström

Factor copula models for item response data are more interpretable and fit better than (truncated) vine copula models when dependence can be explained through latent variables, but are not robust to violations of conditional independence.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-08 Sayed H. Kadhem , Aristidis K. Nikoloulopoulos

Recently developed survival analysis methods improve upon existing approaches by predicting the probability of event occurrence in each of a number pre-specified (discrete) time intervals. By avoiding placing strong parametric assumptions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-25 Jimmy Hickey , Ricardo Henao , Daniel Wojdyla , Michael Pencina , Matthew M. Engelhard

In a Cox model, the partial likelihood, as the product of a series of conditional probabilities, is used to estimate the regression coefficients. In practice, those conditional probabilities are approximated by risk score ratios based on a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-27 Youngjin Cho , Yili Hong , Pang Du

Population attributable fractions aim to quantify the proportion of the cases of an outcome (for example, a disease) that would have been avoided had no individuals in the population been exposed to a given exposure. This quantity thus…

Cardiovascular diseases are major causes of mortality globally. They often co-occur and are interrelated, leading to partial-order relationships among their onset times. However, these onset times are subject to informative censoring due to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Tonghui Yu , Liming Xiang