Related papers: The expectation-maximization algorithm for autoreg…

The Student-$t$ distribution is widely used in statistical modeling of datasets involving outliers since its longer-than-normal tails provide a robust approach to hand such data. Furthermore, data collected over time may contain censored or…

Autoregressive generative models are commonly used, especially for those tasks involving sequential data. They have, however, been plagued by a slew of inherent flaws due to the intrinsic characteristics of chain-style conditional modeling…

Under the framework of dynamic conditional score, we propose a parametric forecasting model for Value-at-Risk based on the normal inverse Gaussian distribution (Hereinafter NIG-DCS-VaR), which creatively incorporates intraday information…

In this paper, different strands of literature are combined in order to obtain algorithms for semi-parametric estimation of discrete choice models that include the modelling of unobserved heterogeneity by using mixing distributions for the…

Fitts' law is often employed as a predictive model for human movement, especially in the field of human-computer interaction. Models with an assumed Gaussian error structure are usually adequate when applied to data collected from…

We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…

Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) algorithms are widely used in a variety of estimation and prediction tasks in signal-processing and machine learning applications. Despite their popularity, a theory that explains their statistical…

Expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is to find maximum likelihood solution for models having latent variables. A typical example is Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) which requires Gaussian assumption, however, natural images are highly…

Large sample statistical analysis of threshold autoregressive (TAR) models is usually based on the assumption that the underlying driving noise is uncorrelated. In this paper, we consider a model, driven by Gaussian noise with geometric…

The EM algorithm is a method for finding the maximum likelihood estimate of a model in the presence of missing data. Unfortunately, EM does not produce a parameter covariance matrix for standard errors. Supplemented EM (SEM; Meng & Rubin,…

The Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) is a growing statistical technique widely applied to regression problems. In essence, ELMs are single-layer neural networks where the hidden layer weights are randomly sampled from a specific distribution,…

To avoid specification of the error distribution in a regression model, we propose a general nonparametric scale mixture model for the error distribution. For fitting such mixtures, the predictive recursion method is a simple and…

Autoregressive models are ubiquitous tools for the analysis of time series in many domains such as computational neuroscience and biomedical engineering. In these domains, data is, for example, collected from measurements of brain activity.…

Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…

The Expectation--Maximization (EM) algorithm is a simple meta-algorithm that has been used for many years as a methodology for statistical inference when there are missing measurements in the observed data or when the data is composed of…

Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…

Probabilistic forecasting of time series is an important matter in many applications and research fields. In order to draw conclusions from a probabilistic forecast, we must ensure that the model class used to approximate the true…

A new approach for signal parametrization, which consists of a specific regression model incorporating a discrete hidden logistic process, is proposed. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood method performed by a…

INteger Auto-Regressive (INAR) processes are usually defined by specifying the innovations and the operator, which often leads to difficulties in deriving marginal properties of the process. In many practical situations, a major modeling…

We develop a hierarchical Gaussian process model for forecasting and inference of functional time series data. Unlike existing methods, our approach is especially suited for sparsely or irregularly sampled curves and for curves sampled with…