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Computing the marginal likelihood or evidence is one of the core challenges in Bayesian analysis. While there are many established methods for estimating this quantity, they predominantly rely on using a large number of posterior samples…

Computation · Statistics 2021-02-26 Eric Chuu , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

A new class of general exponential ranking models is introduced which we label angle-based models for ranking data. A consensus score vector is assumed, which assigns scores to a set of items, where the scores reflect a consensus view of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-27 Hang Xu , Mayer Alvo , Philip L. H. Yu

The distributionally robust Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach asks for a distributionally robust policy that achieves the maximal expected total reward under the most adversarial distribution of uncertain parameters. In this paper, we…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-10-10 Zhi Chen , Pengqian Yu , William B. Haskell

The extraction of consensus segmentations from several binary or probabilistic masks is important to solve various tasks such as the analysis of inter-rater variability or the fusion of several neural network outputs. One of the most widely…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Dimitri Hamzaoui , Sarah Montagne , Raphaële Renard-Penna , Nicholas Ayache , Hervé Delingette

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are the standard framework for decision-making under uncertainty. While sampling-based methods scale well, they lack formal correctness guarantees, making them unsuitable for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Debraj Chakraborty , Anirban Majumdar , Prince Mathew , Sayan Mukherjee , Jean-François Raskin

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a fundamental model for decision making under uncertainty. They exhibit non-deterministic choice as well as probabilistic uncertainty. Traditionally, verification algorithms assume exact knowledge of the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-04-18 Tobias Meggendorfer , Maximilian Weininger , Patrick Wienhöft

When language models use test-time sampling, they generate multiple reasoning trajectories and select an answer by majority vote. We show that these trajectories are not independent: for a given question, they concentrate into a small…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-27 Meng Cai , Lars Kulik , Farhana Choudhury

MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-21 Papa Ngom , Badiassiatta Don Bosco Diatta

We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) in which the transition probabilities and rewards belong to an uncertainty set parametrized by a collection of random variables. The probability distributions for these random parameters are…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2020-02-26 Murat Cubuktepe , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Ufuk Topcu

Fault-tolerant distributed algorithms are central for building reliable spatially distributed systems. Unfortunately, the lack of a canonical precise framework for fault-tolerant algorithms is an obstacle for both verification and…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2012-10-16 Annu John , Igor Konnov , Ulrich Schmid , Helmut Veith , Josef Widder

In this work we investigate an importance sampling approach for evaluating policies for a structurally time-varying factored Markov decision process (MDP), i.e. the policy's value is estimated with a high-probability confidence interval. In…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-07 Carmel Fiscko , Soummya Kar , Bruno Sinopoli

We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-29 Charles Gadd , Sara Wade , Akeel Shah , Dimitris Grammatopoulos

We propose a principled kernel-based policy iteration algorithm to solve the continuous-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). In contrast to most decision-theoretic planning frameworks, which assume fully known state transition models, we…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-06-04 Junhong Xu , Kai Yin , Lantao Liu

In this paper we provide an analytical framework for investigating the efficiency of a consensus-based model for tackling global optimization problems. This work justifies the optimization algorithm in the mean-field sense showing the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-02-08 José A. Carrillo , Young-Pil Choi , Claudia Totzeck , Oliver Tse

Statistical machine learning often uses probabilistic algorithms, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to solve a wide range of problems. Probabilistic computations, often considered too slow on conventional processors, can be…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-26 Xiangyu Zhang , Ramin Bashizade , Yicheng Wang , Cheng Lyu , Sayan Mukherjee , Alvin R. Lebeck

A major challenge in designing efficient statistical supervised learning algorithms is finding representations that perform well not only on available training samples but also on unseen data. While the study of representation learning has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-06 Milad Sefidgaran , Abdellatif Zaidi , Piotr Krasnowski

We propose a generalized framework for the study of voter models in complex networks at the the heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) level that (i) yields a unified picture for existing copy/invasion processes and (ii) allows for the introduction…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-03-20 Paolo Moretti , Suyu Liu , Andrea Baronchelli , Romualdo Pastor-Satorras

We study infinite-horizon robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) on continuous state spaces with structured rectangular ambiguity set. The proposed ambiguity set falls within the convex hull of unknown generating kernels. We utilize the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Mengmeng Li , Yifan Hu , Daniel Kuhn , Yan Li

Supervised topic models utilize document's side information for discovering predictive low dimensional representations of documents. Existing models apply the likelihood-based estimation. In this paper, we present a general framework of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-04-09 Jun Zhu , Amr Ahmed , Eric P. Xing

We consider the problem of approximating the reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDP) with uncountable (continuous) state and action spaces. While there are algorithms that, for special classes of such MDP, provide a…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-13 Kush Grover , Jan Křetínský , Tobias Meggendorfer , Maximilian Weininger
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