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Computing the marginal likelihood or evidence is one of the core challenges in Bayesian analysis. While there are many established methods for estimating this quantity, they predominantly rely on using a large number of posterior samples…
A new class of general exponential ranking models is introduced which we label angle-based models for ranking data. A consensus score vector is assumed, which assigns scores to a set of items, where the scores reflect a consensus view of…
The distributionally robust Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach asks for a distributionally robust policy that achieves the maximal expected total reward under the most adversarial distribution of uncertain parameters. In this paper, we…
The extraction of consensus segmentations from several binary or probabilistic masks is important to solve various tasks such as the analysis of inter-rater variability or the fusion of several neural network outputs. One of the most widely…
Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are the standard framework for decision-making under uncertainty. While sampling-based methods scale well, they lack formal correctness guarantees, making them unsuitable for…
Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a fundamental model for decision making under uncertainty. They exhibit non-deterministic choice as well as probabilistic uncertainty. Traditionally, verification algorithms assume exact knowledge of the…
When language models use test-time sampling, they generate multiple reasoning trajectories and select an answer by majority vote. We show that these trajectories are not independent: for a given question, they concentrate into a small…
MCMC methods (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) are a class of methods used to perform simulations per a probability distribution $P$. These methods are often used when we have difficulties to directly sample per a given probability distribution…
We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) in which the transition probabilities and rewards belong to an uncertainty set parametrized by a collection of random variables. The probability distributions for these random parameters are…
Fault-tolerant distributed algorithms are central for building reliable spatially distributed systems. Unfortunately, the lack of a canonical precise framework for fault-tolerant algorithms is an obstacle for both verification and…
In this work we investigate an importance sampling approach for evaluating policies for a structurally time-varying factored Markov decision process (MDP), i.e. the policy's value is estimated with a high-probability confidence interval. In…
We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…
We propose a principled kernel-based policy iteration algorithm to solve the continuous-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). In contrast to most decision-theoretic planning frameworks, which assume fully known state transition models, we…
In this paper we provide an analytical framework for investigating the efficiency of a consensus-based model for tackling global optimization problems. This work justifies the optimization algorithm in the mean-field sense showing the…
Statistical machine learning often uses probabilistic algorithms, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to solve a wide range of problems. Probabilistic computations, often considered too slow on conventional processors, can be…
A major challenge in designing efficient statistical supervised learning algorithms is finding representations that perform well not only on available training samples but also on unseen data. While the study of representation learning has…
We propose a generalized framework for the study of voter models in complex networks at the the heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) level that (i) yields a unified picture for existing copy/invasion processes and (ii) allows for the introduction…
We study infinite-horizon robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) on continuous state spaces with structured rectangular ambiguity set. The proposed ambiguity set falls within the convex hull of unknown generating kernels. We utilize the…
Supervised topic models utilize document's side information for discovering predictive low dimensional representations of documents. Existing models apply the likelihood-based estimation. In this paper, we present a general framework of…
We consider the problem of approximating the reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDP) with uncountable (continuous) state and action spaces. While there are algorithms that, for special classes of such MDP, provide a…