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Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-16 Christian L. E. Franzke , Terence J. O'Kane , Judith Berner , Paul D. Williams , Valerio Lucarini

Studying structural properties of linear dynamical systems through invariant subspaces is one of the key contributions of the geometric approach to system theory. In general, a model of the dynamics is required in order to compute the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-12 Federico Celi , Fabio Pasqualetti

The recent revolution in data-driven methods for weather forecasting has lead to a fragmented landscape of complex, bespoke architectures and training strategies, obscuring the fundamental drivers of forecast accuracy. Here, we demonstrate…

The problem of prediction in functional linear regression is conventionally addressed by reducing dimension via the standard principal component basis. In this paper we show that an alternative basis chosen through weighted least-squares,…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-02-20 Aurore Delaigle , Peter Hall , Tatiyana V. Apanasovich

This article proposes a hierarchical learning architecture for safe data-driven control in unknown environments. We consider a constrained nonlinear dynamical system and assume the availability of state-input trajectories solving control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-07-15 Charlott Vallon , Francesco Borrelli

An open question in \emph{Imprecise Probabilistic Machine Learning} is how to empirically derive a credal region (i.e., a closed and convex family of probabilities on the output space) from the available data, without any prior knowledge or…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-29 Michele Caprio , David Stutz , Shuo Li , Arnaud Doucet

Robust statistics aims to compute quantities to represent data where a fraction of it may be arbitrarily corrupted. The most essential statistic is the mean, and in recent years, there has been a flurry of theoretical advancement for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-18 Cullen Anderson , Jeff M. Phillips

The vast majority of time-series forecasting approaches require a substantial training dataset. However, many real-life forecasting applications have very little initial observations, sometimes just 40 or fewer. Thus, the applicability of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-06 Samuel Dooley , Gurnoor Singh Khurana , Chirag Mohapatra , Siddartha Naidu , Colin White

Power load forecast with Machine Learning is a fairly mature application of artificial intelligence and it is indispensable in operation, control and planning. Data selection techniqies have been hardly used in this application. However,…

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

This work establishes a crucial step toward advancing data-driven trajectory-based methods for stochastic systems with unknown mathematical dynamics. In contrast to scenario-based approaches that rely on independent and identically…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-01 Abolfazl Lavaei

We consider a data-driven formulation of the classical discrete-time stochastic control problem. Our approach exploits the natural structure of many such problems, in which significant portions of the system are uncontrolled. Employing the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-08-25 Boris Baros , Samuel N. Cohen , Christoph Reisinger

In this paper, we develop a two-stage data-driven approach to address the adjustable robust optimization problem, where the uncertainty set is adjustable to manage infeasibility caused by significant or poorly quantified uncertainties. In…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-29 Xiaoxing Ren , Alessio Moreschini , Zhongda Chu , Yulong Gao , Thomas Parisini

The density ratio is an important metric for evaluating the relative likelihood of two probability distributions, with extensive applications in statistics and machine learning. However, existing estimation theories for density ratios often…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-03 Shuntuo Xu , Zhou Yu , Jian Huang

This work provides test error bounds for iterative fixed point methods on linear predictors -- specifically, stochastic and batch mirror descent (MD), and stochastic temporal difference learning (TD) -- with two core contributions: (a) a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-29 Matus Telgarsky

A resolution-independent data-driven stochastic parametrization method for subgrid-scale processes in coarsened fluid descriptions is proposed. The method enables the inclusion of high-fidelity data into the coarsened flow model, thereby…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2023-04-26 Sagy Ephrati , Paolo Cifani , Milo Viviani , Bernard Geurts

We introduce a statistical physics inspired supervised machine learning algorithm for classification and regression problems. The method is based on the invariances or stability of predicted results when known data is represented as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-19 Patrick Chao , Tahereh Mazaheri , Bo Sun , Nicholas B. Weingartner , Zohar Nussinov

We study prediction-powered conditional inference in the setting where labeled data are scarce, unlabeled covariates are abundant, and a black-box machine-learning predictor is available. The goal is to perform statistical inference on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-09 Yang Sui , Jin Zhou , Hua Zhou , Xiaowu Dai

With promising empirical performance across a wide range of applications, synthetic data augmentation appears a viable solution to data scarcity and the demands of increasingly data-intensive models. Its effectiveness lies in expanding the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Zixuan Wu , So Won Jeong , Yating Liu , Yeo Jin Jung , Claire Donnat

In high-dimensional problems, choosing a prior distribution such that the corresponding posterior has desirable practical and theoretical properties can be challenging. This begs the question: can the data be used to help choose a good…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-25 Ryan Martin , Stephen G. Walker