Related papers: Uncertainty Calibration for Ensemble-Based Debiasi…

A key factor in ensuring the accuracy of computer simulations that model physical systems is the proper calibration of their parameters based on real-world observations or experimental data. Inevitably, uncertainties arise, and Bayesian…

Training multiple deep neural networks (DNNs) and averaging their outputs is a simple way to improve the predictive performance. Nevertheless, the multiplied training cost prevents this ensemble method to be practical and efficient. Several…

Learning unbiased models on imbalanced datasets is a significant challenge. Rare classes tend to get a concentrated representation in the classification space which hampers the generalization of learned boundaries to new test examples. In…

Ensembles of neural networks (NNs) have long been used to estimate predictive uncertainty; a small number of NNs are trained from different initialisations and sometimes on differing versions of the dataset. The variance of the ensemble's…

Machine learning models are often implemented in cohort with humans in the pipeline, with the model having an option to defer to a domain expert in cases where it has low confidence in its inference. Our goal is to design mechanisms for…

Intuitively, unfamiliarity should lead to lack of confidence. In reality, current algorithms often make highly confident yet wrong predictions when faced with relevant but unfamiliar examples. A classifier we trained to recognize gender is…

Large pre-trained language models have shown remarkable performance over the past few years. These models, however, sometimes learn superficial features from the dataset and cannot generalize to the distributions that are dissimilar to the…

Estimation and inference on causal parameters is typically reduced to a generalized method of moments problem, which involves auxiliary functions that correspond to solutions to a regression or classification problem. Recent line of work on…

Ensemble Learning methods combine multiple algorithms performing the same task to build a group with superior quality. These systems are well adapted to the distributed setup, where each peer or machine of the network hosts one algorithm…

The applications of artificial intelligence (AI) are rapidly evolving, and they are also commonly used in safety-critical domains, such as autonomous driving and medical diagnosis, where functional safety is paramount. In AI-driven systems,…

The ensemble of deep neural networks has been shown, both theoretically and empirically, to improve generalization accuracy on the unseen test set. However, the high training cost hinders its efficiency since we need a sufficient number of…

We present a simple comparative framework for testing and developing uncertainty modeling in uncertain marching cubes implementations. The selection of a model to represent the probability distribution of uncertain values directly…

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

We describe various moment-based ensemble interpretation models for the construction of probabilistic temperature forecasts from ensembles. We apply the methods to one year of medium range ensemble forecasts and perform in and out of sample…

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in generating programs from natural language descriptions, yet ensuring their correctness without an external oracle remains a critical challenge. To solve the…

Sparse model identification enables nonlinear dynamical system discovery from data. However, the control of false discoveries for sparse model identification is challenging, especially in the low-data and high-noise limit. In this paper, we…

Dynamic ensemble selection systems work by estimating the level of competence of each classifier from a pool of classifiers. Only the most competent ones are selected to classify a given test sample. This is achieved by defining a criterion…

Recent work has focused on data-driven learning of the evolution of unknown systems via deep neural networks (DNNs), with the goal of conducting long time prediction of the evolution of the unknown system. Training a DNN with low…

We address unsupervised dependency parsing by building an ensemble of diverse existing models through post hoc aggregation of their output dependency parse structures. We observe that these ensembles often suffer from low robustness against…

Neural networks (NNs) often assign high confidence to their predictions, even for points far out-of-distribution, making uncertainty quantification (UQ) a challenge. When they are employed to model interatomic potentials in materials…