Related papers: Deep Neyman-Scott Processes
This paper proposes a new Bayesian multiple change-point model which is based on the hidden Markov approach. The Dirichlet process hidden Markov model does not require the specification of the number of change-points a priori. Hence our…
Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…
Inference on modern Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) often relies on a variational inference treatment, imposing violated assumptions of independence and the form of the posterior. Traditional MCMC approaches avoid these assumptions at the…
Neural networks and Gaussian processes are complementary in their strengths and weaknesses. Having a better understanding of their relationship comes with the promise to make each method benefit from the strengths of the other. In this…
In all but special circumstances, measurements of time-dependent processes reflect internal structures and correlations only indirectly. Building predictive models of such hidden information sources requires discovering, in some way, the…
A new type of dependent thinning for point processes in continuous space is proposed, which leverages the advantages of determinantal point processes defined on finite spaces and, as such, is particularly amenable to statistical, numerical,…
Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…
We present a new method for simulating Markovian jump processes with time-dependent transitions rates, which avoids the transformation of random numbers by inverting time integrals over the rates. It relies on constructing a sequence of…
We study detection of random signals corrupted by noise that over time switch their values (states) from a finite set of possible values, where the switchings occur at unknown points in time. We model such signals by means of a random…
This document presents a compilation of results related to the theory of stochastic processes, with a specific focus on Markov processes, regenerative processes, renewal processes, and stationary processes. The relevance of these topics…
This paper examines Bayesian belief network inference using simulation as a method for computing the posterior probabilities of network variables. Specifically, it examines the use of a method described by Henrion, called logic sampling,…
In this paper we study the Poisson Hypothesis, which is a device to analyze approximately the behavior of large queueing networks. We prove it in some simple limiting cases. We show in particular that the corresponding dynamical system,…
We present a simple derivation of a Feynman-Kac type formula to study fermionic systems. In this approach the real time or the imaginary time dynamics is expressed in terms of the evolution of a collection of Poisson processes. A computer…
Systems of interacting continuous-time Markov chains are a powerful model class, but inference is typically intractable in high dimensional settings. Auxiliary information, such as noisy observations, is typically only available at discrete…
We consider the sequential sampling of species, where observed samples are classified into the species they belong to. We are particularly interested in studying some quantities describing the sampling process when there is a new species…
Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times, is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction,…
Loosely speaking, the Shannon entropy rate is used to gauge a stochastic process' intrinsic randomness; the statistical complexity gives the cost of predicting the process. We calculate, for the first time, the entropy rate and statistical…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…
We rely on Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to interpret searches for new physics at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and elsewhere. These simulations result in noisy and approximate estimators of selection efficiencies and likelihoods. In this…