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In the usual Bayesian setting, a full probabilistic model is required to link the data and parameters, and the form of this model and the inference and prediction mechanisms are specified via de Finetti's representation. In general, such a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Yu Luo , David A. Stephens , Daniel J. Graham , Emma J. McCoy

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Emil Javurek , Dennis Frauen , Yuxin Wang , Stefan Feuerriegel

Bayesian models quantify uncertainty and facilitate optimal decision-making in downstream applications. For most models, however, practitioners are forced to use approximate inference techniques that lead to sub-optimal decisions due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-12 Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Joseph Sakaya , Arto Klami

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-11 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-08-01 Xiaoyue Xi , François-Xavier Briol , Mark Girolami

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Gregory F. Cooper

We study Bayesian approaches to causal inference via propensity score regression. Much of the Bayesian literature on propensity score methods have relied on approaches that cannot be viewed as fully Bayesian in the context of conventional…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

The literature for count modeling provides useful tools to conduct causal inference when outcomes take non-negative integer values. Applied to the potential outcomes framework, we link the Bayesian causal inference literature to statistical…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-10 Young Lee , Wicher P. Bergsma , Marie-Abele C. Bind

Much of the causal discovery literature prioritises guaranteeing the identifiability of causal direction in statistical models. For structures within a Markov equivalence class, this requires strong assumptions which may not hold in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-29 Anish Dhir , Samuel Power , Mark van der Wilk

We address the problem of two-variable causal inference without intervention. This task is to infer an existing causal relation between two random variables, i.e. $X \rightarrow Y$ or $Y \rightarrow X$ , from purely observational data. As…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-07 Maximilian Kurthen , Torsten A. Enßlin

We target the problem of accuracy and robustness in causal inference from finite data sets. Some state-of-the-art algorithms produce clear output complete with solid theoretical guarantees but are susceptible to propagating erroneous…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Datasets are growing not just in size but in complexity, creating a demand for rich models and quantification of uncertainty. Bayesian methods are an excellent fit for this demand, but scaling Bayesian inference is a challenge. In response…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-23 Elaine Angelino , Matthew James Johnson , Ryan P. Adams

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

Discovering causal relationships is a hard task, often hindered by the need for intervention, and often requiring large amounts of data to resolve statistical uncertainty. However, humans quickly arrive at useful causal relationships. One…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-12-01 Pedro A. Ortega

Variable selection and classification are common objectives in the analysis of high-dimensional data. Most such methods make distributional assumptions that may not be compatible with the diverse families of distributions data can take. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-28 Weichang Yu , Lamiae Azizi , John T. Ormerod

We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-23 Daniel Hernández-Lobato , Pablo Morales-Mombiela , David Lopez-Paz , Alberto Suárez

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-02 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

Using nonparametric methods has been increasingly explored in Bayesian hierarchical modeling as a way to increase model flexibility. Although the field shows a lot of promise, inference in many models, including Hierachical Dirichlet…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-01-19 Alexander Spangher

Three critical issues for causal inference that often occur in modern, complicated experiments are interference, treatment nonadherence, and missing outcomes. A great deal of research efforts has been dedicated to developing causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-06 Yuki Ohnishi , Arman Sabbaghi