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This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-27 Casey B. Davis , Christopher M. Hans , Thomas J. Santner

Through the Bayesian lens of data assimilation, uncertainty on model parameters is traditionally quantified through the posterior covariance matrix. However, in modern settings involving high-dimensional and computationally expensive…

Computation · Statistics 2023-11-16 Michael Stanley , Mikael Kuusela , Brendan Byrne , Junjie Liu

Efficient assessment of convolved hidden Markov models is discussed. The bottom-layer is defined as an unobservable categorical first-order Markov chain, while the middle-layer is assumed to be a Gaussian spatial variable conditional on the…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-10-19 Torstein Fjeldstad , Henning Omre

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

Currently several Bayesian approaches are available to estimate large sparse precision matrices, including Bayesian graphical Lasso (Wang, 2012), Bayesian structure learning (Banerjee and Ghosal, 2015), and graphical horseshoe (Li et al.,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-27 Ruoyang Zhang , Yisha Yao , Malay Ghosh

This paper reviews recent developments in statistical structure learning; namely, Bayesian model reduction. Bayesian model reduction is a method for rapidly computing the evidence and parameters of probabilistic models that differ only in…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-15 Karl Friston , Thomas Parr , Peter Zeidman

Existing methods for structure discovery in time series data construct interpretable, compositional kernels for Gaussian process regression models. While the learned Gaussian process model provides posterior mean and variance estimates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-22 David Janz , Brooks Paige , Tom Rainforth , Jan-Willem van de Meent , Frank Wood

Substantial research on structured sparsity has contributed to analysis of many different applications. However, there have been few Bayesian procedures among this work. Here, we develop a Bayesian model for structured sparsity that uses a…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-09 Barbara E. Engelhardt , Ryan P. Adams

Causal structure learning has been a challenging task in the past decades and several mainstream approaches such as constraint- and score-based methods have been studied with theoretical guarantees. Recently, a new approach has transformed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-19 Ignavier Ng , Shengyu Zhu , Zhitang Chen , Zhuangyan Fang

Relying on recent advances in statistical estimation of covariance distances based on random matrix theory, this article proposes an improved covariance and precision matrix estimation for a wide family of metrics. The method is shown to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Malik Tiomoko , Florent Bouchard , Guillaume Ginholac , Romain Couillet

Graphical models are widely used in scienti fic and engineering research to represent conditional independence structures between random variables. In many controlled experiments, environmental changes or external stimuli can often alter…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Bai Zhang , Yue Wang

Motivated by graphical models, we consider the "Sparse Plus Low-rank" decomposition of a positive definite concentration matrix -- the inverse of the covariance matrix. This is a classical problem for which a rich theory and numerical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-01-31 Valentina Ciccone , Augusto Ferrante , Mattia Zorzi

The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular way to specify dependencies between random variables in a probabilistic model. In the Bayesian framework the covariance structure can be specified using unknown hyperparameters. Integrating over these…

Computation · Statistics 2010-11-01 Iain Murray , Ryan Prescott Adams

We introduce a technique for estimating a structured covariance matrix from observations of a random vector which have been sketched. Each observed random vector $\boldsymbol{x}_t$ is reduced to a single number by taking its inner product…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-10-09 Sohail Bahmani , Justin Romberg

Accurate platform localization is an integral component of most robotic systems. As these robotic systems become more ubiquitous, it is necessary to develop robust state estimation algorithms that are able to withstand novel and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-10-15 Ryan M. Watson , Jason N. Gross , Clark N. Taylor , Robert C. Leishman

Variable selection techniques have become increasingly popular amongst statisticians due to an increased number of regression and classification applications involving high-dimensional data where we expect some predictors to be unimportant.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-09-20 Anthony Lee , Francois Caron , Arnaud Doucet , Chris Holmes

We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-06 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

We consider Bayesian variable selection in sparse high-dimensional regression, where the number of covariates $p$ may be large relative to the samples size $n$, but at most a moderate number $q$ of covariates are active. Specifically, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-31 Rina Foygel Barber , Mathias Drton , Kean Ming Tan

Covariance estimation and selection for high-dimensional multivariate datasets is a fundamental problem in modern statistics. Gaussian directed acyclic graph (DAG) models are a popular class of models used for this purpose. Gaussian DAG…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-10-12 Xuan Cao , Kshitij Khare , Malay Ghosh

Estimating time-varying graphical models are of paramount importance in various social, financial, biological, and engineering systems, since the evolution of such networks can be utilized for example to spot trends, detect anomalies,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-07 Hang Yu , Songwei Wu , Justin Dauwels
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