Related papers: Compositional modelling of immune response and vir…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…
Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity…
After more than 6 million deaths worldwide, the ongoing vaccination to conquer the COVID-19 disease is now competing with the emergence of increasingly contagious mutations, repeatedly supplanting earlier strains. Following the near-absence…
The evolution of the adaptive immune system is characterized by changes in the relative abundances of the B- and T-cell clones that make up its repertoires. To fully capture this evolution, we need to describe the complex dynamics of the…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…
We develop simple models for the global spread of infectious diseases, emphasizing human mobility via air travel and the variation of public health infrastructure from region to region. We derive formulas relating the total and peak number…
Viruses display striking diversity in structure, transmission mode, immune interaction, and evolutionary behavior. Despite this diversity, viral strategies are not unconstrained. Here we present a unifying framework that treats viral…
The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model is the canonical model of epidemics of infections that make people immune upon recovery. Many of the open questions in computational epidemiology concern the underlying contact structure's…
Background: Human behavior shapes infectious disease dynamics, yet its integration into transmission models remains fragmented. Recent epidemics, particularly COVID-19, highlight the need for models capturing adaptation to perceived risk,…
The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants have been used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical…
Empirical data on the dynamics of human face-to-face interactions across a variety of social venues have recently revealed a number of context-independent structural and temporal properties of human contact networks. This universality…
The recent coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has dramatically increased the public awareness and appreciation of the utility of dynamic models. At the same time, the dissemination of contradictory model predictions has highlighted…
The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…
Classical epidemiological models assume homogeneous populations. There have been important extensions to model heterogeneous populations, when the identity of the sub-populations is known, such as age group or geographical location. Here,…
Infectious diseases, either emerging or long-lasting, place numerous people at risk and bring heavy public health burdens worldwide. In the process against infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic risk by modeling the disease…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases, which are in principle analytically tractable, use two general approaches. The first approach, generally known as compartmental modeling, addresses the time evolution of disease propagation at the…
In the last decades, the interest to understand the connection between brain and body has grown notably. For example, in psychoneuroimmunology many studies associate stress, arising from many different sources and situations, to changes in…
Given the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, it is of interest to understand how the infections spread as the combined result of measures taken by central planners (governments) and individual behavior. In this work, the spread of Covid-19 is…
The rate of adoption of new information depends on reinforcement from multiple sources in a way that often cannot be described by simple contagion processes. In such cases, contagion is said to be complex. Complex contagion happens in the…