Related papers: Multiplicative Component GARCH Model of Intraday V…
The usage of a spot volatility estimate based on a volatility decomposition in a time-changed price-model according to the trading times is investigated. In this model clock-time volatility splits up into the product of tick-time volatility…
In this paper, we establish a probabilistic representation as well as some integration by parts formulae for the marginal law at a given time maturity of some stochastic volatility model with unbounded drift. Relying on a perturbation…
Building on a prominent agent-based model, we present a new structural stochastic volatility asset pricing model of fundamentalists vs. chartists where the prices are determined based on excess demand. Specifically, this allows for…
The heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is revised by modeling the joint distribution of the four partial-volatility terms therein involved. Namely, today's, yesterday's, last week's and last month's volatility components. The joint…
We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…
This paper studies integral-type event-triggered model predictive control (MPC) of continuous-time nonlinear systems. An integral-type event-triggered mechanism is proposed by incorporating the integral of errors between the actual and…
Intra-day price variations in financial markets are driven by the sequence of orders, called the order flow, that is submitted at high frequency by traders. This paper introduces a novel application of the Sequence Generative Adversarial…
The analysis of the intraday dynamics of correlations among high-frequency returns is challenging due to the presence of asynchronous trading and market microstructure noise. Both effects may lead to significant data reduction and may…
This paper expands on stochastic volatility models by proposing a data-driven method to select the macroeconomic events most likely to impact volatility. The paper identifies and quantifies the effects of macroeconomic events across…
Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples…
We present a discrete time stochastic volatility model in which the conditional distribution of the logreturns is a Variance-Gamma, that is a normal variance-mean mixture with Gamma mixing density. We assume that the Gamma mixing density is…
We examine the relationship between trading volumes, number of transactions, and volatility using daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Following the mixture of distributions hypothesis, we use trading volumes and the number of…
Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility…
Volatilities, in high-dimensional panels of economic time series with a dynamic factor structure on the levels or returns, typically also admit a dynamic factor decomposition. We consider a two-stage dynamic factor model method recovering…
We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…
This paper proposes a spatial threshold GARCH-type model for dynamic spatio-temporal integer-valued data with network structure. The proposed model can simplify the parameterization by using network structure in data, and can capture the…
We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have very rough sample paths. The main results obtained in…
We develop a tractable equilibrium model for price formation in intraday electricity markets in the presence of intermittent renewable generation. Using stochastic control theory, we identify the optimal strategies of agents with market…
The $GARCH$ algorithm is the most renowned generalisation of Engle's original proposal for modelising {\it returns}, the $ARCH$ process. Both cases are characterised by presenting a time dependent and correlated variance or {\it…
A family of continuous-time generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic processes, generalizing the $\operatorname {COGARCH}(1,1)$ process of Kl\"{u}ppelberg, Lindner and Maller [J. Appl. Probab. 41 (2004) 601--622], is…