Related papers: Multiplicative Component GARCH Model of Intraday V…
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
This paper introduces a novel quantile approach to harness the high-frequency information and improve the daily conditional quantile estimation. Specifically, we model the conditional standard deviation as a realized GARCH model and employ…
Heteroskedasticity is a common feature of financial time series and is commonly addressed in the model building process through the use of ARCH and GARCH processes. More recently multivariate variants of these processes have been in the…
Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models have long been considered as one of the most successful families of approaches for volatility modeling in financial return series. In this paper, we propose an…
Stock prices are known to exhibit non-Gaussian dynamics, and there is much interest in understanding the origin of this behavior. Here, we present a model that explains the shape and scaling of the distribution of intraday stock price…
In this paper we propose univariate volatility models for irregularly spaced financial time series by modifying the regularly spaced stochastic volatility models. We also extend this approach to propose multivariate stochastic volatility…
In an asset return series there is a conditional asymmetric dependence between current return and past volatility depending on the current return's sign. To take into account the conditional asymmetry, we introduce new models for asset…
In this paper we examine the relation between market returns and volatility measures through machine learning methods in a high-frequency environment. We implement a minute-by-minute rolling window intraday estimation method using two…
We suggest the Doubly Multiplicative Error class of models (DMEM) for modeling and forecasting realized volatility, which combines two components accommodating low-, respectively, high-frequency features in the data. We derive the…
Multiplicative random cascade model naturally reproduces the intermittency or multifractality, which is frequently shown among hierarchical complex systems such as turbulence and financial markets. As described herein, we investigate the…
Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…
The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…
Christoffersen, Jacobs, Ornthanalai, and Wang (2008) (CJOW) proposed an improved Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for valuing European options, where the return volatility is comprised of two distinct…
This article present a continuous cascade model of volatility formulated as a stochastic differential equation. Two independent Brownian motions are introduced as random sources triggering the volatility cascade. One multiplicatively…
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the…
This paper introduces novel volatility diffusion models to account for the stylized facts of high-frequency financial data such as volatility clustering, intra-day U-shape, and leverage effect. For example, the daily integrated volatility…
We present a tractable non-independent increment process which provides a high modeling flexibility. The process lies on an extension of the so-called Harris chains to continuous time being stationary and Feller. We exhibit constructions,…
In this paper, we introduce flexible observation-driven $\mathbb{Z}$-valued time series models constructed from mixtures of negative and non-negative components. Compared to models based on the standard Skellam distribution or on a…
We propose a stochastic volatility model for time series of curves. It is motivated by dynamics of intraday price curves that exhibit both between days dependence and intraday price evolution. The curves are suitably normalized to…
Various parametric volatility models for financial data have been developed to incorporate high-frequency realized volatilities and better capture market dynamics. However, because high-frequency trading data are not available during the…