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We show that it is possible to understand and identify a decision maker's subjective causal judgements by observing her preferences over interventions. Following Pearl [2000], we represent causality using causal models (also called…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-23 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont

We study strategic interaction in data-driven games where players face uncertainty about payoff distributions inferred from finite samples. To model calibrated attitudes toward such uncertainty, we formulate distributionally robust games…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Bharat Gangwani , Arunesh Sinha

The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-10-22 Finnian Lattimore , David Rohde

The Availability bias, manifested in the over-representation of extreme eventualities in decision-making, is a well-known cognitive bias, and is generally taken as evidence of human irrationality. In this work, we present the first…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2018-01-31 Ardavan S. Nobandegani , Kevin da Silva Castanheira , A. Ross Otto , Thomas R. Shultz

Due to lack of scientific understanding, some mechanisms may be missing in mathematical modeling of complex phenomena in science and engineering. These mathematical models thus contain some uncertainties such as uncertain parameters. One…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-05 Jinqiao Duan , Ting Gao , Guowei He

Causality is receiving increasing attention in the Recommendation Systems (RSs) community, which has realised that RSs could greatly benefit from causality to transform accurate predictions into effective and explainable decisions. Indeed,…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Emanuele Cavenaghi , Alessio Zanga , Fabio Stella , Markus Zanker

Causal multiteam semantics is a framework where probabilistic dependencies arising from data and causation between variables can be together formalized and studied logically. We consider several logics in the setting of causal multiteam…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Fausto Barbero , Jonni Virtema

Forecasting the behavior of other agents is an integral part of the modern robotic autonomy stack, especially in safety-critical scenarios with human-robot interaction, such as autonomous driving. In turn, there has been a significant…

Robotics · Computer Science 2021-07-23 Boris Ivanovic , Marco Pavone

Ensuring that autonomous systems work ethically is both complex and difficult. However, the idea of having an additional `governor' that assesses options the system has, and prunes them to select the most ethical choices is well understood.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-04-15 Louise A. Dennis , Michael Fisher , Alan F. T. Winfield

We propose and discuss sensitivity metrics for reliability analysis, which are based on the value of information. These metrics are easier to interpret than other existing sensitivity metrics in the context of a specific decision and they…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-12-03 Daniel Straub , Max Ehre , Iason Papaioannou

We study the problem of deriving policies, or rules, that when enacted on a complex system, cause a desired outcome. Absent the ability to perform controlled experiments, such rules have to be inferred from past observations of the system's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-09 Kailash Budhathoki , Mario Boley , Jilles Vreeken

Responsibility plays a key role in the development and deployment of trustworthy autonomous systems. In this paper, we focus on the problem of strategic reasoning in probabilistic multi-agent systems with responsibility-aware agents. We…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Chunyan Mu , Muhammad Najib , Nir Oren

Numerical climate models are complex and combine a large number of physical processes. They are key tools in quantifying the relative contribution of potential anthropogenic causes (e.g., the current increase in greenhouse gases) on high…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-19 Anna Kiriliouk , Philippe Naveau

How to attribute responsibility for autonomous artificial intelligence (AI) systems' actions has been widely debated across the humanities and social science disciplines. This work presents two experiments ($N$=200 each) that measure…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Gabriel Lima , Nina Grgić-Hlača , Meeyoung Cha

This paper proposes to use probabilistic model checking to synthesize optimal robot policies in multi-tasking autonomous systems that are subject to human-robot interaction. Given the convincing empirical evidence that human behavior can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-01 Sebastian Junges , Nils Jansen , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Ufuk Topcu

We consider the setting of stochastic multiagent systems modelled as stochastic multiplayer games and formulate an automated verification framework for quantifying and reasoning about agents' trust. To capture human trust, we work with a…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2019-05-17 Xiaowei Huang , Marta Kwiatkowska , Maciej Olejnik

We introduce a new computational model of moral decision making, drawing on a recent theory of commonsense moral learning via social dynamics. Our model describes moral dilemmas as a utility function that computes trade-offs in values over…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-16 Richard Kim , Max Kleiman-Weiner , Andres Abeliuk , Edmond Awad , Sohan Dsouza , Josh Tenenbaum , Iyad Rahwan

A key challenge for the safety of advanced AI systems is the possibility that multiple simpler agents might inadvertently form a collective agent with capabilities and goals distinct from those of any individual. More generally, determining…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-04 Frederik Hytting Jørgensen , Sebastian Weichwald , Lewis Hammond

Although AI systems are increasingly being leveraged to provide value to organizations, individuals, and society, significant attendant risks have been identified and have manifested. These risks have led to proposed regulations,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-06 David Piorkowski , Michael Hind , John Richards

Causality plays a central role in understanding interactions between variables in complex systems. These systems often exhibit state-dependent causal relationships, where both the strength and direction of causality vary with the value of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-08-05 Álvaro Martínez-Sánchez , Adrián Lozano-Durán