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Recently proposed generative models for discrete data, such as Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs), exploit conditional independence approximations to reduce the computational cost of popular Auto-Regressive Models (ARMs), at the price of some…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-18 Hugo Lavenant , Giacomo Zanella

The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data that arise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-23 Ye Liang

Constructing a more effective value at risk (VaR) prediction model has long been a goal in financial risk management. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric approach and provide a standard paradigm to demonstrate the modeling. We…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-08 Shijia Song , Handong Li

Although auto-regressive models excel in natural language processing, they often struggle to generate diverse text and provide limited controllability. Non-auto-regressive methods could be an alternative but often produce degenerate outputs…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Hyukhun Koh , Minha Jhang , Dohyung Kim , Sangmook Lee , Kyomin Jung

In this work, we employ autoregressive models developed in financial engineering for modeling of forest dynamics. Autoregressive models have some theoretical advantage over currently employed forest modeling approaches such as Markov chains…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-11-22 Olga Rumyantseva , Andrey Sarantsev , Nikolay Strigul

We propose an autoregressive framework for modelling dynamic networks with dependent edges. It encompasses models that accommodate, for example, transitivity, degree heterogenenity, and other stylized features often observed in real network…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Jinyuan Chang , Qin Fang , Eric D. Kolaczyk , Peter W. MacDonald , Qiwei Yao

Generative modeling of spatio-temporal fields is crucial for a variety of applications, including stochastic weather generators and climate-model surrogates. However, many such fields exhibit complex dependence structures that vary across…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-06 Carrie J. Lei-Cramer , Jian Cao , Matthias Katzfuss

Diffusion Models (DMs) iteratively denoise random samples to produce high-quality data. The iterative sampling process is derived from Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs), allowing a speed-quality trade-off chosen at inference. Another…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Mattias Cross , Anton Ragni

We develop a new method for generating prediction sets that combines the flexibility of conformal methods with an estimate of the conditional distribution $P_{Y \mid X}$. Existing methods, such as conformalized quantile regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-10 Vincent Plassier , Alexander Fishkov , Mohsen Guizani , Maxim Panov , Eric Moulines

Limited transferability hinders the performance of deep learning models when applied to new application scenarios. Recently, Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (UDA) has achieved significant progress in addressing this issue via learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-27 Yulong Zhang , Shuhao Chen , Weisen Jiang , Yu Zhang , Jiangang Lu , James T. Kwok

Diffusion models have demonstrated appealing performance in both image and video generation. However, many works discover that they struggle to capture important, high-level relationships that are present in the real world. For example,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Xunpeng Huang , Yujin Han , Difan Zou , Yian Ma , Tong Zhang

Novel techniques based on signal-conditioning are presented to mitigate timing errors in time-interleaved ADCs. A theoretical bound on the achievable spurious signal content, on applying the techniques, is also derived. Behavioral…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2012-04-05 Abhishek Ghosh , Sudhakar Pamarti

Diffusion models have quickly become the go-to paradigm for generative modelling of perceptual signals (such as images and sound) through iterative refinement. Their success hinges on the fact that the underlying physical phenomena are…

The proposed stochastic model for pedestrian dynamics is based on existing approaches using cellular automata, combined with substantial extensions, to compensate the deficiencies resulting of the discrete grid structure. This agent motion…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-01 Michael Schultz

This paper studies some temporal dependence properties and addresses the issue of parametric estimation for a class of state-dependent autoregressive models for nonlinear time series in which we assume a stochastic autoregressive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Fabio Gobbi , Sabrina Mulinacci

We evaluate the significance of a recently proposed bivariate jump-diffusion model for a data-driven characterization of interactions between complex dynamical systems. For various coupled and non-coupled jump-diffusion processes, we find…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-05-26 Esra Aslim , Thorsten Rings , Lina Zabawa , Klaus Lehnertz

We extend the theory of spectral submanifolds (SSMs) to general non-autonomous dynamical systems that are either weakly forced or slowly varying. Examples of such systems arise in structural dynamics, fluid-structure interactions and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-04-09 George Haller , Roshan S. Kaundinya

Modeling distributions of covariates, or density estimation, is a core challenge in unsupervised learning. However, the majority of work only considers the joint distribution, which has limited utility in practical situations. A more…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Ryan R. Strauss , Junier B. Oliva

We propose a deep generative approach to sampling from a conditional distribution based on a unified formulation of conditional distribution and generalized nonparametric regression function using the noise-outsourcing lemma. The proposed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Xingyu Zhou , Yuling Jiao , Jin Liu , Jian Huang

We present here a general iterative formula which gives a (formal) series expansion for the time autocorrelation of smooth dynamical variables, for all Hamiltonian systems endowed with an invariant measure. We add some criteria, theoretical…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-06-03 Alberto Mario Maiocchi , Andrea Carati , Antonio Giorgilli