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We introduce multiple hidden Markov models (MHMMs) where an observed multivariate categorical time series depends on an unobservable multivariate Mar- kov chain. MHMMs provide an elegant framework for specifying various independence…

Multivariate time series are ubiquitous objects in signal processing. Measuring a distance or similarity between two such objects is of prime interest in a variety of applications, including machine learning, but can be very difficult as…

Under the Neyman causal model, it is well-known that OLS with treatment-by-covariate interactions cannot harm asymptotic precision of estimated treatment effects in completely randomized experiments. But do such guarantees extend to…

Cluster indices describe extremal behaviour of stationary time series. We consider their sliding blocks estimators. Using a modern theory of multivariate, regularly varying time series, we obtain central limit theorems under conditions that…

In this paper we propose a solution to the problem of parameter estimation of nonlinearly parameterized regressions--continuous or discrete time--and apply it for system identification and adaptive control. We restrict our attention to…

We propose the use of indirect inference estimation to conduct inference in complex locally stationary models. We develop a local indirect inference algorithm and establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator. Due to the…

The classical vector autoregressive model is a fundamental tool for multivariate time series analysis. However, it involves too many parameters when the number of time series and lag order are even moderately large. This paper proposes to…

This paper introduces new techniques for estimating, identifying and simulating mixed causal-noncausal invertible-noninvertible models. We propose a framework that integrates high-order cumulants, merging both the spectrum and bispectrum…

Time series modeling and forecasting has fundamental importance to various practical domains. Thus a lot of active research works is going on in this subject during several years. Many important models have been proposed in literature for…

Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…

Functional data analysis is a fast evolving branch of statistics. Estimation procedures for the popular functional linear model either suffer from lack of robustness or are computationally burdensome. To address these shortcomings, a…

Irregular multivariate time series (IMTS) are characterized by irregular time intervals within variables and unaligned observations across variables, posing challenges in learning temporal and variable dependencies. Many existing IMTS…

Time series data in real-world applications such as healthcare, climate modeling, and finance are often irregular, multimodal, and messy, with varying sampling rates, asynchronous modalities, and pervasive missingness. However, existing…

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

This paper proposes a nonlinear estimator for the robust reconstruction of process and sensor faults for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. The proposed fault estimation method augments the system dynamics with an ultra-local (in time)…

Recent advances in interrupted time series analysis permit characterization of a typical non-linear interruption effect through use of generalized additive models. Concurrently, advances in latent time series modeling allow efficient…

Motivated by empirical evidence from the joint behavior of realized volatility time series, we propose to model the joint dynamics of log-volatilities using a multivariate fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. This model is a multivariate…

Mutual information is a nonlinear measure used in time series analysis in order to measure the linear and non-linear correlations at any lag $\tau$. The aim of this study is to evaluate some of the most commonly used mutual information…

Causal analysis based on non-uniform embedding schemes is an important way to detect the underlying interactions between dynamic systems. However, there are still some obstacles to estimate high-dimensional conditional mutual information…

This paper considers M-estimation of a nonlinear regression model with multiple change-points occuring at unknown times. The multi-phase random design regression model, discontinuous in each change-point, have an arbitrary error $\epsilon$.…