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We present a computational method for measuring financial risk by estimating the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall from financial series. We have made two assumptions: First, that the predictive distributions of the values of an asset…
A near-field motion parameter estimation method is proposed. In contract to far-field sensing systems, the near-field sensing system leverages spherical-wave characteristics to enable full-vector location and velocity estimation. Despite…
The Gaussian process (GP) regression model is a widely employed surrogate modeling technique for computer experiments, offering precise predictions and statistical inference for the computer simulators that generate experimental data.…
We propose a pointwise inference algorithm for high-dimensional linear models with time-varying coefficients. The method is based on a novel combination of the nonparametric kernel smoothing technique and a Lasso bias-corrected ridge…
Variational inference has been widely used in machine learning literature to fit various Bayesian models. In network analysis, this method has been successfully applied to solve the community detection problems. Although these results are…
This work presents a multilevel variant of Stein variational gradient descent to more efficiently sample from target distributions. The key ingredient is a sequence of distributions with growing fidelity and costs that converges to the…
Gaussian processes offer a flexible kernel method for regression. While Gaussian processes have many useful theoretical properties and have proven practically useful, they suffer from poor scaling in the number of observations. In…
We develop a fast variational approximation scheme for Gaussian process (GP) regression, where the spectrum of the covariance function is subjected to a sparse approximation. Our approach enables uncertainty in covariance function…
We consider the problem of learning a conditional Gaussian graphical model in the presence of latent variables. Building on recent advances in this field, we suggest a method that decomposes the parameters of a conditional Markov random…
Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear…
Latent space models are popular for analyzing dynamic network data. We propose a variational approach to estimate the model parameters as well as the latent positions of the nodes in the network. The variational approach is much faster than…
We implement gradient-based variational inference routines for Wishart and inverse Wishart processes, which we apply as Bayesian models for the dynamic, heteroskedastic covariance matrix of a multivariate time series. The Wishart and…
This paper interprets the stabilized finite element method via residual minimization as a variational multiscale method. We approximate the solution to the partial differential equations using two discrete spaces that we build on a…
Fabrication process variations can significantly influence the performance and yield of nano-scale electronic and photonic circuits. Stochastic spectral methods have achieved great success in quantifying the impact of process variations,…
In preliminary analysis of control charts, one may encounter multiple shifts and/or outliers especially with a large number of observations. The following paper addresses this problem. A statistical model for detecting and estimating…
Factors models are routinely used to analyze high-dimensional data in both single-study and multi-study settings. Bayesian inference for such models relies on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods which scale poorly as the number of…
Understanding wafer-level spatial variations from in-situ process signals is essential for advanced plasma etching process monitoring. While most data-driven approaches focus on scalar indicators such as average etch rate, actual process…
Calibrating for direction-dependent ionospheric distortions in visibility data is one of the main technical challenges that must be overcome to advance low-frequency radio astronomy. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic,…
Federated or multi-site studies have distinct advantages over single-site studies, including increased generalizability, the ability to study underrepresented populations, and the opportunity to study rare exposures and outcomes. However,…
The trace of a matrix function f(A), most notably of the matrix inverse, can be estimated stochastically using samples< x,f(A)x> if the components of the random vectors x obey an appropriate probability distribution. However such a…