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We address uncertainty quantification for Gaussian processes (GPs) under misspecified priors, with an eye towards Bayesian Optimization (BO). GPs are widely used in BO because they easily enable exploration based on posterior uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-03 Willie Neiswanger , Aaditya Ramdas

Recent advances in deep learning have shown that uncertainty estimation is becoming increasingly important in applications such as medical imaging, natural language processing, and autonomous systems. However, accurately quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-04 Uddeshya Upadhyay , Jae Myung Kim , Cordelia Schmidt , Bernhard Schölkopf , Zeynep Akata

Uncertainty estimation aims to evaluate the confidence of a trained deep neural network. However, existing uncertainty estimation approaches rely on low-dimensional distributional assumptions and thus suffer from the high dimensionality of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Tsai Hor Chan , Kin Wai Lau , Jiajun Shen , Guosheng Yin , Lequan Yu

Existing deep neural network based salient object detection (SOD) methods mainly focus on pursuing high network accuracy. However, those methods overlook the gap between network accuracy and prediction confidence, known as the confidence…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-14 Jing Zhang , Yuchao Dai , Xin Yu , Mehrtash Harandi , Nick Barnes , Richard Hartley

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

Increased usage of automated tools like deep learning in medical image segmentation has alleviated the bottleneck of manual contouring. This has shifted manual labour to quality assessment (QA) of automated contours which involves detecting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-09-06 Prerak Mody , Nicolas F. Chaves-de-Plaza , Chinmay Rao , Eleftheria Astrenidou , Mischa de Ridder , Nienke Hoekstra , Klaus Hildebrandt , Marius Staring

Conformal prediction is a popular uncertainty quantification method that augments a base predictor to return sets of predictions with statistically valid coverage guarantees. However, current methods are often computationally expensive and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Laura Lützow , Michael Eichelbeck , Mykel J. Kochenderfer , Matthias Althoff

The histogram is an analysis tool in widespread use within many sciences, with high energy physics as a prime example. However, there exists an inherent bias in the choice of binning for the histogram, with different choices potentially…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-05-21 Abram Krislock , Nathan Krislock

Uncertainty estimation is pivotal in machine learning, especially for classification tasks, as it improves the robustness and reliability of models. We introduce a novel `Epistemic Wrapping' methodology aimed at improving uncertainty…

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have been widely used to obtain solutions to various physical phenomena modeled as Differential Equations. As PINNs are not naturally equipped with mechanisms for Uncertainty Quantification, some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-05 Pablo Flores , Olga Graf , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

The mean field variational Bayes (VB) algorithm implemented in Stan is relatively fast and efficient, making it feasible to produce model-estimated official statistics on a rapid timeline. Yet, while consistent point estimates of parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Terrance D. Savitsky , Julie Gershunskaya

Diffusion models are extensively used for modeling image priors for inverse problems. We introduce \emph{Diff-Unfolding}, a principled framework for learning posterior score functions of \emph{conditional diffusion models} by explicitly…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-22 Yuanhao Wang , Shirin Shoushtari , Ulugbek S. Kamilov

In many analyses in high energy physics, attempts are made to remove the effects of detector smearing in data by techniques referred to as "unfolding" histograms, thus obtaining estimates of the true values of histogram bin contents. Such…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-07-26 Robert D. Cousins , Samuel J. May , Yipeng Sun

Rule-based classification models described in the language of logic directly predict boolean values, rather than modeling a probability and translating it into a prediction as done in statistical models. The vast majority of existing…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-11-04 Yusik Kim

Subset selection-based methods are widely used to explain deep vision models: they attribute predictions by highlighting the most influential image regions and support object-level explanations. While these methods perform well in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Madhav Gupta , Vishak Prasad C , Ganesh Ramakrishnan

We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-14 David T. Frazier , Robert Kohn , Christopher Drovandi , David Gunawan

Deconvolving ("unfolding'') detector distortions is a critical step in the comparison of cross section measurements with theoretical predictions in particle and nuclear physics. However, most existing approaches require histogram binning…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2024-12-19 Krish Desai , Benjamin Nachman , Jesse Thaler

This paper presents an algorithm for the preprocessing of observation data aimed at improving the robustness of orbit determination tools. Two objectives are fulfilled: obtain a refined solution to the initial orbit determination problem…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Alberto Fossà , Roberto Armellin , Emmanuel Delande , Matteo Losacco , Francesco Sanfedino

Understanding and quantifying uncertainty in black box Neural Networks (NNs) is critical when deployed in real-world settings such as healthcare. Recent works using Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods have shown how a unified predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-29 Utkarsh Sarawgi , Wazeer Zulfikar , Rishab Khincha , Pattie Maes

Despite achieving enormous success in predictive accuracy for visual classification problems, deep neural networks (DNNs) suffer from providing overconfident probabilities on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Yet, accurate uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Zongyao Lyu , Nolan B. Gutierrez , William J. Beksi