Related papers: Surreal Decisions
The sub-linear expectation space is a nonlinear expectation space having advantages of modelling the uncertainty of probability and distribution. In the sub-linear expectation space, we use capacity and sub-linear expectation to replace…
Programs increasingly rely on randomization in applications such as cryptography and machine learning. Analyzing randomized programs has been a fruitful research direction, but there is a gap when programs also exploit nondeterminism (for…
We note that if a sequence of real numbers converges to some limit, then the sequence of the corresponding strings in the surreal $+,-$ sign expansion representation converges, for a natural notion of string convergence, to the string…
We consider a practically motivated variant of the canonical online fair allocation problem: a decision-maker has a budget of perishable resources to allocate over a fixed number of rounds. Each round sees a random number of arrivals, and…
This paper studies the utility maximization on the terminal wealth with random endowments and proportional transaction costs. To deal with unbounded random payoffs from some illiquid claims, we propose to work with the acceptable portfolios…
Motivated by the problem of utility allocation in a portfolio under a Markowitz mean-variance choice paradigm, we propose an allocation criterion for the variance of the sum of $n$ possibly dependent random variables. This criterion, the…
One way to make decisions under uncertainty is to select an optimal option from a possible range of options, by maximizing the expected utilities derived from a probability model. However, under severe uncertainty, identifying precise…
Bertand's paradox is a fundamental problem in probability that casts doubt on the applicability of the indifference principle by showing that it may yield contradictory results, depending on the meaning assigned to "randomness". Jaynes…
The probabilistic serial (PS) rule is one of the most prominent randomized rules for the assignment problem. It is well-known for its superior fairness and welfare properties. However, PS is not immune to manipulative behaviour by the…
The transitivity of preferences is one of the basic assumptions used in the theory of games and decisions. It is often equated with rationality of choice and is considered useful in building rankings. Intransitive preferences are considered…
In this paper we look at popular fairness methods that use causal counterfactuals. These methods capture the intuitive notion that a prediction is fair if it coincides with the prediction that would have been made if someone's race, gender…
This work contains the mathematical exploration of a few prototypical games in which central concepts from statistics and probability theory naturally emerge. The first two kinds of games are termed Fisher and Bayesian games, which are…
This paper introduces a space of variable lotteries and proves a constructive version of the expected utility theorem. The word ``constructive'' is used here in two senses. First, as in constructive mathematics, the logic underlying proofs…
This paper studies decision making for Walley's partially consonant belief functions (pcb). In a pcb, the set of foci are partitioned. Within each partition, the foci are nested. The pcb class includes probability functions and possibility…
The abc conjecture is one of the most famous unsolved problems in number theory. The conjecture claims for each real $\epsilon > 0$ that there are only a finite number of coprime positive integer solutions to the equation $a+b = c$ with $c…
The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical theory that can be used as a foundation for statistics that include improper priors. This theory includes improper laws in the initial axioms and has in particular Bayes theorem as a…
The 'expected utility hypothesis' and 'Savage's Sure-Thing Principle' are violated in real life decisions, as shown by the 'Allais' and 'Ellsberg paradoxes'. The popular explanation in terms of 'ambiguity aversion' is not completely…
Classical probability theory supports probability measures, assigning a fixed positive real value to each event, these measures are far from satisfactory in formulating real-life occurrences. The main innovation of this paper is the…
Conventional noncooperative game theory hypothesizes that the joint strategy of a set of players in a game must satisfy an "equilibrium concept". All other joint strategies are considered impossible; the only issue is what equilibrium…
Two fundamental axioms in social choice theory are consistency with respect to a variable electorate and consistency with respect to components of similar alternatives. In the context of traditional non-probabilistic social choice, these…