Related papers: Posterior Inference for Quantile Regression: Adapt…

Prediction is a key issue in time series analysis. Just as classical mean regression models, classical autoregressive methods, yielding L$^2$ point-predictions, provide rather poor predictive summaries; a much more informative approach is…

Probabilistic machine learning models are distinguished by their ability to integrate prior knowledge of noise statistics, smoothness parameters, and training data uncertainty. A common approach involves modeling data with Gaussian…

As a competitive alternative to least squares regression, quantile regression is popular in analyzing heterogenous data. For quantile regression model specified for one single quantile level $\tau$, major difficulties of semiparametric…

In a variety of application areas, there is a growing interest in analyzing high dimensional sparse count data, with sparsity exhibited by an over-abundance of zeros and small non-zero counts. Existing approaches for analyzing multivariate…

We propose a Machine Learning approach for optimal macroeconomic density forecasting in a high-dimensional setting where the underlying model exhibits a known group structure. Our approach is general enough to encompass specific forecasting…

This paper considers equity premium prediction, for which mean regression can be problematic due to heteroscedasticity and heavy-tails of the error. We show advantages of quantile predictions using a novel penalized quantile regression that…

We propose a novel, succinct, and effective approach for distribution prediction to quantify uncertainty in machine learning. It incorporates adaptively flexible distribution prediction of $\mathbb{P}(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{X}=x)$ in regression…

Statistical inference in high dimensional settings has recently attracted enormous attention within the literature. However, most published work focuses on the parametric linear regression problem. This paper considers an important…

We investigate nonparametric regression methods based on spatial depth and quantiles when the response and the covariate are both functions. As in classical quantile regression for finite dimensional data, regression techniques developed…

We use rescaled Gaussian processes as prior models for functional parameters in nonparametric statistical models. We show how the rate of contraction of the posterior distributions depends on the scaling factor. In particular, we exhibit…

Bayesian inference is a widely used technique for real-time characterization of quantum systems. It excels in experimental characterization in the low data regime, and when the measurements have degrees of freedom. A decisive factor for its…

The remarkable generalization performance of large-scale models has been challenging the conventional wisdom of the statistical learning theory. Although recent theoretical studies have shed light on this behavior in linear models and…

The Laplace approximation is a popular method for constructing a Gaussian approximation to the Bayesian posterior and thereby approximating the posterior mean and variance. But approximation quality is a concern. One might consider using…

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The Economist magazine. However, the demands of real-time…

We give oracle inequalities on procedures which combines quantization and variable selection via a weighted Lasso $k$-means type algorithm. The results are derived for a general family of weights, which can be tuned to size the influence of…

In this paper we adopt the familiar sparse, high-dimensional linear regression model and focus on the important but often overlooked task of prediction. In particular, we consider a new empirical Bayes framework that incorporates data in…

Many penalized maximum likelihood estimators correspond to posterior mode estimators under specific prior distributions. Appropriateness of a particular class of penalty functions can therefore be interpreted as the appropriateness of a…

We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…

Learning a sequence of tasks without access to i.i.d. observations is a widely studied form of continual learning (CL) that remains challenging. In principle, Bayesian learning directly applies to this setting, since recursive and one-off…