Related papers: Uniting Parametric Uncertainty and Tipping Diagram…
In particle physics, as in many areas of science, parameter inference relies on simulations to bridge the gap between theory and experiment. Recent developments in simulation-based inference have boosted the sensitivity of analyses;…
Tipping behavior can occur when an equilibrium of a dynamical system loses stability in response to a slowly varying parameter crossing a bifurcation threshold, or where noise drives a system from one attractor to another, or some…
Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…
Stochastic simulation is widely used to study complex systems composed of various interconnected subprocesses, such as input processes, routing and control logic, optimization routines, and data-driven decision modules. In practice, these…
We employ uncertain parametric CTMCs with parametric transition rates and a prior on the parameter values. The prior encodes uncertainty about the actual transition rates, while the parameters allow dependencies between transition rates.…
Earth observation from satellites offers the possibility to monitor our planet with unprecedented accuracy. Radiative transfer models (RTMs) encode the energy transfer through the atmosphere, and are used to model and understand the Earth…
Many complex dynamical systems in the real world, including ecological, climate, financial, and power-grid systems, often show critical transitions, or tipping points, in which the system's dynamics suddenly transit into a qualitatively…
Climate models project an uncertainty range of possible warming scenarios from 1.5 to 5 degree Celsius global temperature increase until 2100, according to the CMIP6 model ensemble. Climate risk management and infrastructure adaptation…
The behavior of a stationary inverted point mass pendulum pivoted at its lower end in a gravitational potential is studied under the influence of statistical fluctuations. It is shown using purely classical equations that the pendulum…
Change-point detection methods are proposed for the case of temporary failures, or transient changes, when an unexpected disorder is ultimately followed by a readjustment and return to the initial state. A base distribution of the…
Tipping points have been actively studied in various applications as well as from a mathematical viewpoint. A main technique to theoretically understand early-warning signs for tipping points is to use the framework of fast-slow stochastic…
Geostatistical seismic inversion is commonly used to infer the spatial distribution of the subsurface petro-elastic properties by perturbing the model parameter space through iterative stochastic sequential simulations/co-simulations. The…
An asymmetric exclusion model on an open chain with random rates for hopping particles, where overtaking is also possible, is studied numerically and by computer simulation. The phase structure of the model and the density profiles near the…
A variation in the environment of a system, such as the temperature, the concentration of a chemical solution or the appearance of a magnetic field, may lead to a drift in one of the parameters. If the parameter crosses a bifurcation point,…
Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…
This paper presents a pedestrian motion model that includes both low level trajectory patterns, and high level discrete transitions. The inclusion of both levels creates a more general predictive model, allowing for more meaningful…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
Conceptual delay models have played a key role in the understanding of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Based on such delay models, we propose a novel scenario for the fabric of ENSO variability resulting from the subtle…
The Global Overturning Circulation (GOC) is a key component of the climate system, transporting heat, carbon, and salt throughout the global ocean. Previous reduced-dimensional models have sought to represent this three-dimensional…
The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that…