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Accurate time series forecasting is crucial for optimizing resource allocation, industrial production, and urban management, particularly with the growth of cyber-physical and IoT systems. However, limited training sample availability in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-24 Yunyao Cheng , Chenjuan Guo , Kaixuan Chen , Kai Zhao , Bin Yang , Jiandong Xie , Christian S. Jensen , Feiteng Huang , Kai Zheng

The detection of periodic signals in irregularly-sampled time series is a problem commonly encountered in astronomy. Traditional tools used for periodic searches, such as the periodogram, have poorly defined statistical properties under…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-01-13 A. Gúrpide , M. Middleton

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian machine learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Sebastian Bieringer , Sascha Diefenbacher , Gregor Kasieczka , Mathias Trabs

Gaussian processes (GPs) play an essential role in biostatistics, scientific machine learning, and Bayesian optimization for their ability to provide probabilistic predictions and model uncertainty. However, GP inference struggles to scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Pratik Rathore , Zachary Frangella , Sachin Garg , Shaghayegh Fazliani , Michał Dereziński , Madeleine Udell

Data availability has dramatically increased in recent years, driving model-based control methods to exploit learning techniques for improving the system description, and thus control performance. Two key factors that hinder the practical…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-22 Elena Arcari , Andrea Carron , Melanie N. Zeilinger

When an NLP model is trained on text data from one time period and tested or deployed on data from another, the resulting temporal misalignment can degrade end-task performance. In this work, we establish a suite of eight diverse tasks…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-07-04 Kelvin Luu , Daniel Khashabi , Suchin Gururangan , Karishma Mandyam , Noah A. Smith

Adaptive learning is necessary for non-stationary environments where the learning machine needs to forget past data distribution. Efficient algorithms require a compact model update to not grow in computational burden with the incoming data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Vanessa Gómez-Verdejo , Emilio Parrado-Hernández , Manel Martínez-Ramón

We put forward a new Bayesian modeling strategy for spatiotemporal count data that enables efficient posterior sampling. Most previous models for such data decompose logarithms of the response Poisson rates into fixed effects and spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a general and analytically tractable way of modeling complex time-varying, nonparametric functions. The Automatic Bayesian Covariance Discovery (ABCD) system constructs natural-language description of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-02-15 Yunseong Hwang , Anh Tong , Jaesik Choi

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Tomoharu Iwata , Zoubin Ghahramani

Data-driven Model Predictive Control (MPC), where the system model is learned from data with machine learning, has recently gained increasing interests in the control community. Gaussian Processes (GP), as a type of statistical models, are…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2019-10-03 Truong X. Nghiem

Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-25 Steven Stetzler , Michael Grosskopf , Earl Lawrence

Reliable spatial uncertainty evaluation of object detection models is of special interest and has been subject of recent work. In this work, we review the existing definitions for uncertainty calibration of probabilistic regression tasks.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-22 Fabian Küppers , Jonas Schneider , Anselm Haselhoff

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely recognized as powerful non-parametric models for regression and classification. Traditional GP frameworks predominantly operate under the assumption that the inputs are either accurately known or subject…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-14 Muzaffar Qureshi , Tochukwu Elijah Ogri , Zachary I. Bell , Wanjiku A. Makumi , Rushikesh Kamalapurkar

Ranging from cart-pole systems and autonomous bicycles to bipedal robots, control of these underactuated balance robots aims to achieve both external (actuated) subsystem trajectory tracking and internal (unactuated) subsystem balancing…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Kuo Chen , Jingang Yi , Dezhen Song

Classical consensus-based strategies for federated and decentralized learning are statistically suboptimal in the presence of heterogeneous local data or task distributions. As a result, in recent years, there has been growing interest in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Zirui Wan , Stefan Vlaski

In this paper, we study extensions to the Gaussian Processes (GPs) continuous occupancy mapping problem. There are two classes of occupancy mapping problems that we particularly investigate. The first problem is related to mapping under…

Robotics · Computer Science 2017-06-05 Maani Ghaffari Jadidi , Jaime Valls Miro , Gamini Dissanayake

Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric generative models that provide interpretability of hyperparameters, admit closed-form expressions for training and inference, and are able to accurately represent uncertainty. To model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-21 Gonzalo Rios , Felipe Tobar

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a highly flexible, nonparametric statistical model that are commonly used to fit nonlinear relationships or account for correlation between observations. However, the computational load of fitting a Gaussian…

Computation · Statistics 2023-10-30 Matthew J Heaton , Jacob A. Johnson

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric Bayesian models for regression of scalar fields, formulated under the assumption that measurement locations are perfectly known and the corresponding field measurements have Gaussian…

Robotics · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Muzaffar Qureshi , Tochukwu Elijah Ogri , Kyle Volle , Rushikesh Kamalapurkar
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