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Related papers: Neyman-Pearson lemma for Bayes factors

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When do nonparametric Bayesian procedures ``overfit''? To shed light on this question, we consider a binary regression problem in detail and establish frequentist consistency for a certain class of Bayes procedures based on hierarchical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marc Coram , Steven P. Lalley

Bayesian sample size calculations in clinical trials usually rely on complex Monte Carlo simulations in practice. Obtaining bounds on Bayesian notions of the false-positive rate and power often lack closed-form or approximate numerical…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-03 Riko Kelter

We consider the standard Neyman-Pearson hypothesis test of a signal-plus-background hypothesis and background-only hypothesis in the presence of uncertainty on the background-only prediction. Surprisingly, this problem has not been…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2014-11-18 Kyle S. Cranmer

The validity of two-step or plug-in inference methods is questioned in the Bayesian framework. We study semi-parametric models where the plug-in of a non-parametrically modelled nuisance component is used. We show that when the nuisance and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Magid Sabbagh , David A. Stephens

In this paper we review the concepts of Bayesian evidence and Bayes factors, also known as log odds ratios, and their application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-24 Kevin H. Knuth , Michael Habeck , Nabin K. Malakar , Asim M. Mubeen , Ben Placek

We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both simple…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 C. R. Jenkins , J. A. Peacock

We consider the problem of hypothesis testing in the situation when the first hypothesis is simple and the second one is local one-sided composite. We describe the choice of the thresholds and the power functions of the Score Function test,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-26 Serguei Dachian , Yury Kutoyants , Lin Yang

In the context of testing general relativity with gravitational waves, constraints obtained with multiple events are typically combined either through a hierarchical formalism or though a combined multiplicative Bayes factor. We show that…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-08-17 Maximiliano Isi , Will M. Farr , Katerina Chatziioannou

We describe Bayes factors based on z, t, $\chi^2$, and F statistics when non-local moment prior distributions are used to define alternative hypotheses. The non-local alternative prior distributions are centered on standardized effects. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-26 Saptati Datta , Rachael Shudde , Valen E. Johnson

Bayes' Theorem confers inherent limitations on the accuracy of screening tests as a function of disease prevalence. We have shown in previous work that a testing system can tolerate significant drops in prevalence, up until a certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-01 Jacques Balayla

Bayes factor, defined as the ratio of the marginal likelihood functions of two competing models, is the natural Bayesian procedure for model selection. Marginal likelihoods are usually computationally demanding and complex. This scenario is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-09 Gabriel Calvo , Carmen Armero , Luigi Spezia , Maria Grazia Pennino

We marshall the arguments for preferring Bayesian hypothesis testing and confidence sets to frequentist ones. We define admissible solutions to inference problems, noting that Bayesian solutions are admissible. We give seven weaker…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-22 Roger Sewell

This dissertation shows that careful injection of noise into sample data can substantially speed up Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Expectation-Maximization algorithms are a class of iterative algorithms for extracting maximum…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-26 Osonde Adekorede Osoba

A quantum probability measure is a function on a sigma-algebra of subsets of a (locally compact and Hausdorff) sample space that satisfies the formal requirements for a measure, but whose values are positive operators acting on a complex…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-03 Douglas Farenick , Michael J. Kozdron

The Bayes factor is a widely used criterion in model comparison and its logarithm is a difference of out-of-sample predictive scores under the logarithmic scoring rule. However, when some of the candidate models involve vague priors on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-07 Stephane Shao , Pierre E. Jacob , Jie Ding , Vahid Tarokh

In several interesting applications one is faced with the problem of simultaneous binary hypothesis testing and parameter estimation. Although such joint problems are not infrequent, there exist no systematic analysis in the literature that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-25 George V. Moustakides

We revisit the outlier hypothesis testing framework of Li \emph{et al.} (TIT 2014) and derive fundamental limits for the optimal test under the generalized Neyman-Pearson criterion. In outlier hypothesis testing, one is given multiple…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-02-15 Lin Zhou , Yun Wei , Alfred Hero

Design of experiments has traditionally relied on the frequentist hypothesis testing framework where the optimal size of the experiment is specified as the minimum sample size that guarantees a required level of power. Sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Shirin Golchi , Luke Hagar

In this paper, we propose a simple and easy-to-implement Bayesian hypothesis test for the presence of an association, described by Kendall's \tau coefficient, between two variables measured on at least an ordinal scale. Owing to the absence…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-09 Shen Zhang , Keying Ye , Min Wang

We consider the problem of Neyman-Pearson classification which models unbalanced classification settings where error w.r.t. a distribution $\mu_1$ is to be minimized subject to low error w.r.t. a different distribution $\mu_0$. Given a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Mohammadreza M. Kalan , Samory Kpotufe