Related papers: Neyman-Pearson lemma for Bayes factors
It is often claimed that Bayesian methods, in particular Bayes factor methods for hypothesis testing, can deal with optional stopping. We first give an overview, using elementary probability theory, of three different mathematical meanings…
In this paper, we consider Bayesian hypothesis testing for the balanced one-way random effects model. A special choice of the prior formulation for the ratio of variance components is shown to yield an explicit closed-form Bayes factor…
Selective classification enhances the reliability of predictive models by allowing them to abstain from making uncertain predictions. In this work, we revisit the design of optimal selection functions through the lens of the Neyman--Pearson…
Good large sample performance is typically a minimum requirement of any model selection criterion. This article focuses on the consistency property of the Bayes factor, a commonly used model comparison tool, which has experienced a recent…
A perennial objection against Bayes factor point-null hypothesis tests is that the point-null hypothesis is known to be false from the outset. We examine the consequences of approximating the sharp point-null hypothesis by a hazy…
We study the Neyman-Pearson problem for convex expectations on L^{\infty}(\mu). The existence of the optimal test is given. Without assuming that the level sets of penalty functions are weakly compact, we prove that the optimal tests for…
A Bayes factor is proposed for testing whether the effect of a key predictor variable on the dependent variable is linear or nonlinear, possibly while controlling for certain covariates. The test can be used (i) when one is interested in…
Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…
Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize…
Bayes factors, in many cases, have been proven to bridge the classic -value based significance testing and bayesian analysis of posterior odds. This paper discusses this phenomena within the binomial A/B testing setup (applicable for…
A common concern with Bayesian methodology in scientific contexts is that inferences can be heavily influenced by subjective biases. As presented here, there are two types of bias for some quantity of interest: bias against and bias in…
The classic frequentist theory of hypothesis testing developed by Neyman, Pearson and Fisher has a claim to being the twentieth century's most influential piece of applied mathematics. Something new is happening in the twenty-first century:…
We identify the critical deviation scale governing Bayesian evidence accumulation in regular parametric testing. Under integrated Bayes risk with zero-one loss, the risk-optimal rejection boundary lies in a moderate deviation regime, with a…
Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…
Motivated by problems of anomaly detection, this paper implements the Neyman-Pearson paradigm to deal with asymmetric errors in binary classification with a convex loss. Given a finite collection of classifiers, we combine them and obtain a…
Neyman and Pearson's theory of testing hypotheses does not warrant minimal epistemic reliability: the feature of driving to true conclusions more often than to false ones. The theory does not protect from the possible negative effects of…
We present a new test of hypothesis in which we seek the probability of the null conditioned on the data, where the null is a simplification undertaken to counter the intractability of the more complex model, that the simpler null model is…
We construct a classifier which attains the rate of convergence $\log n/n$ under sparsity and margin assumptions. An approach close to the one met in approximation theory for the estimation of function is used to obtain this result. The…
Inferences about hypotheses are ubiquitous in the cognitive sciences. Bayes factors provide one general way to compare different hypotheses by their compatibility with the observed data. Those quantifications can then also be used to choose…
Most existing binary classification methods target on the optimization of the overall classification risk and may fail to serve some real-world applications such as cancer diagnosis, where users are more concerned with the risk of…