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The development of causal prediction models is challenged by the fact that the outcome is only observable for the applied (factual) intervention and not for its alternatives (the so-called counterfactuals); in medicine we only know…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-29 Stefan Schrod , Fabian Sinz , Michael Altenbuchinger

Counterfactual explanations enhance interpretability by identifying alternative inputs that produce different outputs, offering localized insights into model decisions. However, traditional methods often neglect causal relationships,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Pouria Fatemi , Ehsan Sharifian , Mohammad Hossein Yassaee

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Unlike traditional supervised learning, in many settings only partial feedback is available. We may only observe outcomes for the chosen actions, but not the counterfactual outcomes associated with other alternatives. Such settings…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-09 Ruijiang Gao , Max Biggs , Wei Sun , Ligong Han

Interpretable machine learning seeks to understand the reasoning process of complex black-box systems that are long notorious for lack of explainability. One flourishing approach is through counterfactual explanations, which provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Vy Vo , Trung Le , Van Nguyen , He Zhao , Edwin Bonilla , Gholamreza Haffari , Dinh Phung

The field of generating recommendations within the framework of causal inference has seen a recent surge, with recommendations being likened to treatments. This approach enhances insights into the influence of recommendations on user…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-21 Guanglin Zhou , Chengkai Huang , Xiaocong Chen , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu , Lina Yao

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , David Huber , Rafael Cabañas

Medical professionals evaluating alternative treatment plans for a patient often encounter time varying confounders, or covariates that affect both the future treatment assignment and the patient outcome. The recently proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-21 Garima Gupta , Lovekesh Vig , Gautam Shroff

Contrastive pretraining is well-known to improve downstream task performance and model generalisation, especially in limited label settings. However, it is sensitive to the choice of augmentation pipeline. Positive pairs should preserve…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Melanie Roschewitz , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Tian Xia , Galvin Khara , Ben Glocker

This paper tackles the problem of time-to-event counterfactual survival prediction, aiming to optimize individualized survival outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity and censored data. We propose CURE, a framework that advances…

Deep learning models exhibit a preference for statistical fitting over logical reasoning. Spurious correlations might be memorized when there exists statistical bias in training data, which severely limits the model performance especially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-13 Wei Wang , Boxin Wang , Ning Shi , Jinfeng Li , Bingyu Zhu , Xiangyu Liu , Rong Zhang

A topic of great current interest is Causal Representation Learning (CRL), whose goal is to learn a causal model for hidden features in a data-driven manner. Unfortunately, CRL is severely ill-posed since it is a combination of the two…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-10 Hiroshi Morioka , Aapo Hyvärinen

Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Peng Wu , Haoxuan Li , Chunyuan Zheng , Yan Zeng , Jiawei Chen , Yang Liu , Ruocheng Guo , Kun Zhang

Bundle Recommendation (BR) aims at recommending bundled items on online content or e-commerce platform, such as song lists on a music platform or book lists on a reading website. Several graph based models have achieved state-of-the-art…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-12-22 Shixuan Zhu , Qi Shen , Yiming Zhang , Zhenwei Dong , Zhihua Wei

Most machine learning (ML) models are developed for prediction only; offering no option for causal interpretation of their predictions or parameters/properties. This can hamper the health systems' ability to employ ML models in clinical…

Contrastive pretraining can substantially increase model generalisation and downstream performance. However, the quality of the learned representations is highly dependent on the data augmentation strategy applied to generate positive…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Mélanie Roschewitz , Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Tian Xia , Galvin Khara , Ben Glocker

We develop a novel method for counterfactual analysis based on observational data using prediction intervals for units under different exposures. Unlike methods that target heterogeneous or conditional average treatment effects of an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-18 Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

There is a broad consensus on the importance of deep learning models in tasks involving complex data. Often, an adequate understanding of these models is required when focusing on the transparency of decisions in human-critical…

Causal representation learning (CRL) models aim to transform high-dimensional data into a latent space, enabling interventions to generate counterfactual samples or modify existing data based on the causal relationships among latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-19 Alireza Sadeghi , Wael AbdAlmageed

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms usually require a substantial amount of interaction data and perform well only for specific tasks in a fixed environment. In some scenarios such as healthcare, however, usually only few records are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-17 Chaochao Lu , Biwei Huang , Ke Wang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Kun Zhang , Bernhard Schölkopf