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We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-08 Andrea Bertazzi , Giorgos Vasdekis

The entropy production rate is central to the study of non-equilibrium systems. This parameter is closely connected to violation of time-reversal symmetry, energy consumption, efficiency, and other properties of interest; in short, it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-05-28 John W. Biddle

The problem of calculating the rate of mutual information between two coarse-grained variables that together specify a continuous time Markov process is addressed. As a main obstacle, the coarse-grained variables are in general…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-10-01 Andre Cardoso Barato , David Hartich , Udo Seifert

A lumping of a Markov chain is a coordinate-wise projection of the chain. We characterise the entropy rate preservation of a lumping of an aperiodic and irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space by the random growth rate of the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-04-21 Bernhard C. Geiger , Christoph Temmel

We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Nils Berglund

The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-03 Martin Bladt , Oscar Peralta

The estimation of entropy rates for stationary discrete-valued stochastic processes is a well studied problem in information theory. However, estimating the entropy rate for stationary continuous-valued stochastic processes has not received…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-05-26 Andrew Feutrill , Matthew Roughan

We address the problem of estimating the mixing time of a Markov chain from a single trajectory of observations. Unlike most previous works which employed Hilbert space methods to estimate spectral gaps, we opt for an approach based on…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-13 Geoffrey Wolfer

Motivated by reduction of computational complexity, this work develops sign-error adaptive filtering algorithms for estimating time-varying system parameters. Different from the previous work on sign-error algorithms, the parameters are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-11-17 Araz Hashemi , G. Yin , Le Yi Wang

In this paper, we present a novel iterative Monte Carlo method for approximating the stationary probability of a single state of a positive recurrent Markov chain. We utilize the characterization that the stationary probability of a state…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2015-12-11 Christina E. Lee , Asuman Ozdaglar , Devavrat Shah

In this paper we consider the problem of sampling from the low-temperature exponential random graph model (ERGM). The usual approach is via Markov chain Monte Carlo, but Bhamidi et al. showed that any local Markov chain suffers from an…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-05 Guy Bresler , Dheeraj Nagaraj , Eshaan Nichani

This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{\text{mix}}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-04 Daniel Hsu , Aryeh Kontorovich , Csaba Szepesvári

Regime-switching processes contain two components: continuous component and discrete component, which can be used to describe a continuous dynamical system in a random environment. Such processes have many different properties than general…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-26 Jinghai Shao

Markov processes with stochastic resetting towards the origin generically converge towards non-equilibrium steady-states. Long dynamical trajectories can be thus analyzed via the large deviations at Level 2.5 for the joint probability of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-07 Cecile Monthus

Rate processes are simple and analytically tractable models for many dynamical systems which switch stochastically between a discrete set of quasi stationary states but they may also approximate continuous processes by coarse grained,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-03-11 R. Toenjes , H. Kori

We study a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but each process has potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-01 Alexandre Belloni , Roberto I. Oliveira

The goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the entropy of random long-range correlated symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. As a plausible model, we use the high-order additive stationary ergodic Markov…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2014-12-12 S. S. Melnik , O. V. Usatenko

A discrete-time Markov chain can be transformed into a new Markov chain by looking at its states along iterations of an almost surely finite stopping time. By the optional stopping theorem, any bounded harmonic function with respect to the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Iddo Ben-Ari , Behrang Forghani

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution $\pi$ by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel $P$ such that $\pi$ is invariant under $P$. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-16 P. Alquier , N. Friel , R. Everitt , A. Boland

We consider a simple discrete-time Markov chain with values in $[0,\infty)^{Z^d}$. The Markov chain describes various interesting examples such as oriented percolation, directed polymers in random environment, time discretizations of binary…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-26 Nobuo Yoshida