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Sentiment-based stock prediction systems aim to explore sentiment or event signals from online corpora and attempt to relate the signals to stock price variations. Both the feature-based and neural-networks-based approaches have delivered…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-08-19 Yue Zhou , Kerstin Voigt

Study of the forecasting models using large scale microblog discussions and the search behavior data can provide a good insight for better understanding the market movements. In this work we collected a dataset of 2 million tweets and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2012-12-06 Tushar Rao , Saket Srivastava

This paper evaluates the performance of classical time series models in forecasting Bitcoin prices, focusing on ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH. Daily price data from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed, with models trained on the first 90 percent…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-11 Anmar Kareem , Alexander Aue

This research investigates the growing trend of retail investors participating in certain stocks by organizing themselves on social media platforms, particularly Reddit. Previous studies have highlighted a notable association between Reddit…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-22 Tim Matthies , Thomas Löhden , Stephan Leible , Jun-Patrick Raabe

In this paper, we analyze the time-series of minute price returns on the Bitcoin market through the statistical models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family. Several mathematical models have been…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-01 Irena Barjašić , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

Bots have become increasingly prevalent in the digital sphere and have taken up a proactive role in shaping democratic processes. While previous studies have focused on their influence at the individual level, their potential macro-level…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Beril Bulat , Martin Hilbert

Portfolio management is the decision-making process of allocating an amount of fund into different financial investment products. Cryptocurrencies are electronic and decentralized alternatives to government-issued money, with Bitcoin as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-05-12 Zhengyao Jiang , Jinjun Liang

We show that infinite divisibility of a trading commodity leads to a self-sustained price bubble when traders use adaptive investment strategies. The adaptive strategy can be viewed as a psychological response of a trader to the situation…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-01 Misha Perepelitsa , Ilya Timofeyev

We assess the applicability of rough volatility models to Bitcoin realized volatility using the normalised p-variation framework of Cont and Das (2024). Applying this model-free estimator to high-frequency Bitcoin data from 2017 to 2024…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-30 Milan Pontiggia

Bitcoin, as one of the most popular cryptocurrency, is recently attracting much attention of investors. Bitcoin price prediction task is consequently a rising academic topic for providing valuable insights and suggestions. Existing bitcoin…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-25 Xiao Li , Weili Wu

The collection and examination of social media has become a useful mechanism for studying the mental activity and behavior tendencies of users. Through the analysis of collected Twitter data, models were developed for classifying…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Joseph Tassone , Peizhi Yan , Mackenzie Simpson , Chetan Mendhe , Vijay Mago , Salimur Choudhury

Predicting stock market movements is a well-known problem of interest. Now-a-days social media is perfectly representing the public sentiment and opinion about current events. Especially, twitter has attracted a lot of attention from…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2016-10-31 Venkata Sasank Pagolu , Kamal Nayan Reddy Challa , Ganapati Panda , Babita Majhi

The ability to obtain accurate food security metrics in developing areas where relevant data can be sparse is critically important for policy makers tasked with implementing food aid programs. As a result, a great deal of work has been…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-04-29 Jared Dunnmon , Swetava Ganguli , Darren Hau , Brooke Husic

Nowadays, geographic information related to Twitter is crucially important for fine-grained applications. However, the amount of geographic information avail- able on Twitter is low, which makes the pursuit of many applications challenging.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2017-05-09 Hayate Iso , Shoko Wakamiya , Eiji Aramaki

In this work, we tackle the problem of predicting entity popularity on Twitter based on the news cycle. We apply a supervised learn- ing approach and extract four types of features: (i) signal, (ii) textual, (iii) sentiment and (iv)…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-07-12 Pedro Saleiro , Carlos Soares

Mental well-being and social media have been closely related domains of study. In this research a novel model, AD prediction model, for anxious depression prediction in real-time tweets is proposed. This mixed anxiety-depressive disorder is…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-03-26 Akshi Kumar , Aditi Sharma , Anshika Arora

In online social media systems users are not only posting, consuming, and resharing content, but also creating new and destroying existing connections in the underlying social network. While each of these two types of dynamics has…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-03-13 Seth A. Myers , Jure Leskovec

Online social media are key platforms for the public to discuss political issues. As a result, researchers have used data from these platforms to analyze public opinions and forecast election results. Recent studies reveal the existence of…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2020-06-03 Kai-Cheng Yang , Pik-Mai Hui , Filippo Menczer

An algorithmic stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency managed by algorithms (i.e., smart contracts) to dynamically minimize the volatility of its price relative to a specific form of asset, e.g., US dollar. As algorithmic stablecoins have…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-01-22 Wenqi Zhao , Hui Li , Yuming Yuan

Blockchain offers a decentralized, immutable, transparent system of records. It offers a peer-to-peer network of nodes with no centralised governing entity making it unhackable and therefore, more secure than the traditional paper-based or…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2019-11-27 Harsh Jot Singh , Abdelhakim Senhaji Hafid