Related papers: Ask "Who", Not "What": Bitcoin Volatility Forecast…
Cryptocurrencies have gained significant attention in recent years due to their decentralized nature and potential for financial innovation. Thus, the ability to accurately predict its price has become a subject of great interest for…
Bitcoin has attracted attention from different market participants due to unpredictable price patterns. Sometimes, the price has exhibited big jumps. Bitcoin prices have also had extreme, unexpected crashes. We test the predictive power of…
Volatility is a natural risk measure in finance as it quantifies the variation of stock prices. A frequently considered problem in mathematical finance is to forecast different estimates of volatility. What makes it promising to use deep…
The goal of this project is to create and study novel techniques to identify early warning signals for socially disruptive events, like riots, wars, or revolutions using only publicly available data on social media. Such techniques need to…
Forecasting cryptocurrencies as a financial issue is crucial as it provides investors with possible financial benefits. A small improvement in forecasting performance can lead to increased profitability; therefore, obtaining a realistic…
Bitcoin is the first digital decentralized cryptocurrency that has shown a significant increase in market capitalization in recent years. The objective of this paper is to determine the predictable price direction of Bitcoin in USD by…
Predicting stock market is vital for investors and policymakers, acting as a barometer of the economic health. We leverage social media data, a potent source of public sentiment, in tandem with macroeconomic indicators as…
We introduce novel approaches to cryptocurrency price forecasting, leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, with a focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. By analysing news and social media content,…
Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price…
Cryptocurrency is a fast-moving space, with a continuous influx of new projects every year. However, an increasing number of incidents in the space, such as hacks and security breaches, threaten the growth of the community and the…
Since Bitcoin first appeared on the scene in 2009, cryptocurrencies have become a worldwide phenomenon as important decentralized financial assets. Their decentralized nature, however, leads to notable volatility against traditional fiat…
Applying deep learning and computational intelligence to finance has been a popular area of applied research, both within academia and industry, and continues to attract active attention. The inherently high volatility and non-stationary of…
Cryptocurrency markets present unique prediction challenges due to their extreme volatility, 24/7 operation, and hypersensitivity to news events, with existing approaches suffering from key information extraction and poor sideways market…
This paper analyzes correlations and causalities between Bitcoin market indicators and Twitter posts containing emotional signals on Bitcoin. Within a timeframe of 104 days (November 23rd 2013 - March 7th 2014), about 160,000 Twitter posts…
In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations…
Predicting cryptocurrency price trends remains a major challenge due to the volatility and complexity of digital asset markets. Artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a powerful tool to address this problem. This study proposes a…
We study recurrent patterns in volatility and volume for major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether, using data from two centralized exchanges (Coinbase Pro and Binance) and a decentralized exchange (Uniswap V2). We find systematic patterns…
Volatility is a quantity of measurement for the price movements of stocks or options which indicates the uncertainty within financial markets. As an indicator of the level of risk or the degree of variation, volatility is important to…
Using machine learning and alternative data for the prediction of financial markets has been a popular topic in recent years. Many financial variables such as stock price, historical volatility and trade volume have already been through…
Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques based on machine learning can be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily…