Related papers: Optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention policy for…

We study and predict the evolution of Covid-19 in six US states from the period May 1 through August 31 using a discrete compartment-based model and prescribe active intervention policies, like lockdowns, on the basis of minimizing a loss…

During the Covid-19 pandemic, most governments across the world imposed policies like lock-down of public spaces and restrictions on people's movements to minimize the spread of the virus through physical contact. However, such policies…

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been critical in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these sanitary measures have been partially lifted due to socioeconomic factors causing a worrisome rebound of the epidemic in several…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many organizations (e.g. businesses, companies, government facilities, etc.) have attempted to reduce infection risk by employing partial home office strategies. However, working from home can also reduce…

Countries around the world implement nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Design of efficient NPIs requires identification of the structure of the disease transmission network. We here identify the key…

Since the early months of 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) -- implemented at varying levels of severity and based on widely-divergent perspectives of risk tolerance -- have been the primary means to control SARS-CoV-2…

Traditional epidemic detection algorithms make decisions using only local information. We propose a novel approach that explicitly models spatial information fusion from several metapopulations. Our method also takes into account…

During the COVID-19 pandemic, case isolation emerged as a key non-pharmaceutical intervention in pandemic response. Its effectiveness hinges on the timing of isolation, which is often dictated by the onset of contagiousness. While…

We adapt a SEIRD differential model with asymptomatic population and Covid deaths, which we call SEAIRD, to simulate the evolution of COVID-19, and add a control function affecting both the diffusion of the virus and GDP, featuring all…

A novel Coronavirus pandemic emerged in December of 2019, causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antiviral, strategies for mitigating the burden of the pandemic are…

This study investigates the influence of different types of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on epidemic progression using SIR compartmental models. We analyze the optimization of two distinct targets: the final epidemic size and the…

The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges worldwide. Strained healthcare providers make difficult decisions on patient triage, treatment and care management on a daily basis. Policy makers have imposed social distancing…

To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is…

Mathematical models are instrumental to forecast the spread of pathogens and to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures. A plethora of optimal strategies has been recently developed to minimize either the infected peak…

We propose and study a compartmental model for epidemiology with human behavioral effects. Specifically, our model incorporates governmental prevention measures aimed at lowering the disease infection rate, but we split the population into…

Social distancing has been the only effective way to contain the spread of an infectious disease prior to the availability of the pharmaceutical treatment. It can lower the infection rate of the disease at the economic cost. A pandemic…

Population-wide vaccination is critical for containing the SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic when combined with restrictive and prevention measures. In this study, we introduce SAIVR, a mathematical model able to forecast the Covid-19 epidemic…

To curb the initial spread of SARS-CoV-2, many countries relied on nation-wide implementation of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, resulting in substantial socio-economic impacts. Potentially, subnational implementations might have…

Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with…

Social distancing and lockdown are the two main non-pharmaceutical interventions being used by the UK government to contain and control the COVID-19 epidemic; these are being applied uniformly across the entire country, even though the…