Related papers: Interpolating commodity futures prices with Krigin…
In a continuous-time model with multiple assets described by c\`{a}dl\`{a}g processes, this paper characterizes superhedging prices, absence of arbitrage, and utility maximizing strategies, under general frictions that make execution prices…
At present, there is an explosion of practical interest in the pricing of interest rate (IR) derivatives. Textbook pricing methods do not take into account the leptokurticity of the underlying IR process. In this paper, such a leptokurtic…
This paper adopts the random matrix theory (RMT) to analyze the correlation structure of the global agricultural futures market from 2000 to 2020. It is found that the distribution of correlation coefficients is asymmetric and right skewed,…
Since exchange economy considerably varies in the market assets, asset prices have become an attractive research area for investigating and modeling ambiguous and uncertain information in today markets. This paper proposes a new generative…
Engineering design involves demanding models encompassing many decision variables and uncontrollable parameters. In addition, unavoidable aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties can be very impactful and add further complexity. The…
There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…
Value-oriented forecasts for two-stage power system operational problems have been demonstrated to reduce cost, but prove to be computationally challenging for large-scale systems because the underlying optimization problem must be…
Predicting the behaviour of shoppers provides valuable information for retailers, such as the expected spend of a shopper or the total turnover of a supermarket. The ability to make predictions on an individual level is useful, as it allows…
The computational effort for the evaluation of numerical simulations based on e.g. the finite-element method is high. Metamodels can be utilized to create a low-cost alternative. However the number of required samples for the creation of a…
This paper proposes a novel model of financial prices where: (i) prices are discrete; (ii) prices change in continuous time; (iii) a high proportion of price changes are reversed in a fraction of a second. Our model is analytically…
We study valuation of swing options on commodity markets when the commodity prices are driven by multiple factors. The factors are modeled as diffusion processes driven by a multidimensional L\'evy process. We set up a valuation model in…
Kriging is a widely recognized method for making spatial predictions. On the sphere, popular methods such as ordinary kriging assume that the spatial process is intrinsically homogeneous. However, intrinsic homogeneity is too strict in many…
A quantum field theory generalization, Baaquie, of the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (HJM) term structure model parsimoniously describes the evolution of imperfectly correlated forward rates. Field theory also offers powerful computational…
We study the problem of dynamically trading multiple futures contracts with different underlying assets. To capture the joint dynamics of stochastic bases for all traded futures, we propose a new model involving a multi-dimensional scaled…
This article proposes a new kriging that has a rational form. It is shown that the generalized least squares estimate of the mean from rational kriging is much more well behaved than that from ordinary kriging. Parameter estimation and…
Continuous time financial market models are often motivated as scaling limits of discrete time models. The objective of this paper is to establish such a connection for a robust framework. More specifically, we consider discrete time models…
The use of weather index insurances is subject to spatial basis risk, which arises from the fact that the location of the user's risk exposure is not the same as the location of any of the weather stations where an index can be measured. To…
The paper introduces benchmark-neutral pricing and hedging for long-term contingent claims. It employs the growth optimal portfolio of the stocks as numeraire and the new benchmark-neutral pricing measure for pricing. For a realistic…
We introduce a first theory of price impact in presence of an interest-rates term structure. We explain how one can formulate instantaneous and transient price impact on bonds with different maturities, including a cross price impact that…
Cryptocoins (i.e., Bitcoin, Ether, Litecoin) are tradable digital assets. Ownerships of cryptocoins are registered on distributed ledgers (i.e., blockchains). Secure encryption techniques guarantee the security of the transactions…